Despite two positive developments, Qatar taking the initiative and calling for a “Quintet Meeting” and reports of the French President’s Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian making a second visit, Lebanon remains without a president. This vacuum, which twelve parliamentary sessions could not fill, seems like it will endure. Indeed, during the last of these sessions, it became apparent that those putting the stick in the wheels will continue to be able to obstruct the quorum!
Held on June 14, this electoral session should have given rise to initiatives aimed at breaking the deadlock. Hezbollah nominally called for dialogue. In substance, however, its call for talks was an attempt to impose a consensus around its candidate, Suleiman Franjieh, and obtain written guarantees (...). Meanwhile, the “opposition” failed to take the initiative, backing the Aounists’ nomination of Jihad Azour instead. More broadly, this last session put the disputes between the parties of the sectarian-quota-based spoils-sharing regime on full display, as no viable vision for the future was put forward by the competing forces of the regime.
Here, it is worth discussing the proposals being advocated by supporters of Hezbollah. They have veered away from the original question, going past the centrality of vacancy to discuss the political system they would like to have. They want Lebanon to hold a new “founding conference,” which Hezbollah backs because it believes its immense arsenal, through which it has built a statelet within the state, would allow it to impose its will on others and make significant changes to the Taif Agreement.
It wants to avoid the constitutional path to building a state that embraces its people. This is despite the fact that the constitution, as outlined in the Taif Agreement’s amendments, has drawn a roadmap for turning Lebanon into a modern civic state that has room for all of the Lebanese people’s hopes and dreams. However, the sectarian armed factions that imposed their control over Lebanon have disregarded the constitution and set up a disastrous sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime when the Syrian army had soldiers deployed in Lebanon, tailoring it to Syria’s interests.
Later on, this spoil-sharing became more even entrenched as Hezbollah, and behind it the Iranian Mullah regime, strengthened its grip on the country. The parties that shared the spoils of the state, both anti and pro-regime, cohabited in consecutive government seats. Over more than two decades - from Paris One to the Cedre Conference held six years ago - these parties were united in preventing reform. They prioritized their sectarian and partisan interests despite their policies’ systematic impoverishment of Lebanon and its people. Even the economic crisis that the World Bank called one of the three most severe the world has seen in 150 years did not compel them to change course; indeed, parliament has yet to ratify the needed reforms!
Hezbollah has always exploited vacant presidential seats and power vacuums to undermine and hollow out the institutions, allowing it to gradually strengthen its grip over them. Over time, it thus managed to monopolize decision-making. It now chooses whether Lebanon goes to war or keeps the peace, as well as calling the shots on political, economic, and financial matters.
The infamous deal of 2016 that made Hezbollah’s candidate Michel Aoun president left it in total control of the presidency. Aoun afforded Hezbollah the cover of legitimacy as it deliberately isolated the country from its neighbors and turned Lebanon into a drug-trafficking hub hostile to the Arab world, thereby deracinating it and forcing it to join the Axis of Resistance. After 2016, Hezbollah held all the power and became the country’s only arbiter, while the presidency was made into a ceremonial position through which sectarian handouts could be distributed; meanwhile, ministries and institutions became empty shells!
Hezbollah demanded that “written guarantees” be made - after having established a parallel state for itself - because it is apprehensive about the messages sent by the latest parliamentary elections. Its project to force subordination to Iran on the Lebanese was undermined by the October forces, who received around 400,000 votes, thereby depriving Hezbollah, as well as its opponents, of a parliamentary majority. Indeed, the election results were a major blow, as they woke Hezbollah up to the fact that having total control over Shiite parliamentary representation, which will not endure forever, is not enough to create a bulwark against undesired outcomes.
Hezbollah has become the leading arbiter in Lebanon since Aoun became president. It has the final say on how governments are formed, makes the decisions, and steers the ship. This became even more apparent after Aoun’s term ended on October 31, 2022. Hezbollah has seized the actual powers of the president since, leaving the caretaker government to enjoy its empty nominal authority. Governments wait for its signal to convene to discuss items the party had already approved. It is not hyperbolic to say that by ensuring the “blocking third” - an obscene betrayal of the constitution - through the Doha Agreement, Hezbollah managed to make a super-charged finance minister that was granted powers previously reserved to the president and prime minister.
Facing the prospect of a decapitated Central Bank as the current Governor’s term comes to an end, it seemed, just a few days ago, that the duo of Nabih Berri and Najib Mikati were an inch away from appointing a new Governor or extending Riad Salameh’s term despite the two international arrest warrants in his name and the charges of embezzlement and money laundering filed against him by Lebanese and foreign courts. However, after receiving a signal from Southern Suburbs (Hezbollah stronghold), Mikati backtracked and made clear that Hezbollah has the final on who is appointed to top positions and when.
If they are granted, the “guarantees” that Mohammad Raad discussed in the presence of Jean-Yves Le Drian would allow Hezbollah to consolidate its hegemony by enshrining a custom into the constitution. This would turn Hezbollah into the arbiter, guardian, and leader of the state. Hezbollah is determined to push this amendment to the constitution through because it has become weary of the ballot boxes after realizing that things will never be the same after October 17!
It becomes increasingly evident with every passing day the October forces should see the presidential elections as the step that follows the parliamentary elections and the other junctures since the October 17 revolution. It should be a step on the path of allowing citizens to remain crucial political actors driven to sharpen the tools they need for their struggle and to defend their rights and interests. It should be a step on the path toward building a political alternative, which the historical bloc has become a necessary condition for. There is no other way to restore the national balance. As Sami Gemayel said just a few days ago: “Time is against us... We must create a counterweight to Hezbollah, as we cannot remain hostages and victims!”
