The persistence of the Gaza war for many months was a major surprise that the world had not anticipated and accounted for, and there are no indications of when it will end. Even the two parties directly involved, Israel and Hamas, had not prepared for anything more than another cycle of the conflict like the others that have broken out since Hamas took control in Gaza.
Hamas did not anticipate the astonishing and unforeseen outcomes of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. Israel did not anticipate the heavy costs of this war, as it had not expected the war to go on for this long or the resistance to be this stiff. Their failure to anticipate how things would play out pushed both sides to set maximalist objectives.
For its part, Hamas presented the success of the Al-Aqsa Flood as a strategic milestone that would inevitably lead to victory.
Israel saw the earthquake that shook its foundations as a "momentary lapse" that could be addressed through a retaliatory punitive campaign that utilizes its immense arsenal. Given the precedents that have shown that Israel can destroy large portions of the buildings and infrastructure in Gaza within a few days, Israel expected the heightened intensity of this campaign to allow for ending things swiftly. This tempted Netanyahu to put maximalist goals forward, what he has persistently called "absolute victory."
Over the course of this war, from when it began to the present, unforeseen developments have unfolded. For example, the region teetered on the brink of a regional war, compelling three European NATO countries to get involved. In what they called an effort to prevent this eventuality, they helped intercept the Iranian drones and missiles that had been sent to Israel. Another significant development was the summoning of the Israeli state, which is protected by the US and the West, to the International Court of Justice. Additionally, the United States was forced to wage battles in the Security Council without the support of its allies, forcing it to use its veto four times.
The war has reached every home in the world. Thus, for the first time in history, Israel's atrocities have sparked mass uprisings against it across the globe, the most recent being the student protests in the US.
All that is just the tip of the iceberg. Under the current circumstances, achieving total victory as Netanyahu has himself defined it will be impossible. It has become clear that the international community will not allow him to actualize the terms he had laid out for this victory. Indeed, he and his war have been overwhelmingly denounced. Even if he were to fully occupy Gaza and secure the release of hostages - a far-fetched prospect - he would not have achieved a total or even relative victory.
The most challenging development to come out of this war, for Netanyahu, is that there is now a global consensus that the establishment of a Palestinian state is the only way to resolve conflict in the Middle East and put out the fires in the region threatening its stability and that of the entire globe.
We have seen compelling, observed, and tangible evidence that total victory is not on the cards, not if it is assessed according to strategic results and the scale of areas of death and destruction in Gaza and other regions targeted by the Israeli military machine.
Just as absolute victory is no longer possible, the region and the world have not allowed Hamas to achieve the inevitable victory it had promised.
What Hamas has called its "righteous promise" was not limited to deterring Israeli ambitions in Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem, evolving into a narrative of victory over Israel and its collapse as a result of severe blows and domestic fragmentation. Not only has this been prohibited, but merely continuing to discuss it is not tenable any longer either. The narrative has shifted to discussions around the terms under which Israel would be recognized and how this would happen.
The fact is that the situation on the ground, both regionally and internationally, is shifting. We are veering towards a new attempt to explore the possibilities of a settlement that leads to a two-state solution. We might not see convincing steps toward determining the framework for its establishment, and the proximity of US and Israeli elections may curb the momentum.
Nonetheless, there can be no doubt that the dichotomy of total victory and inevitable victory is now behind us. Although the entire world, including all Palestinians, has chosen to pursue new settlements, its success is not guaranteed.
That is the state of the Middle East, with its shifting sands and unanticipated surprises. That is the state of our world embroiled in two major concurrent wars, one in Europe and another in the Middle East.
The picture is clear in terms of the options available to us, but matters are less clear regarding how the conflicts could be settled.
