If Trump stumbles on airplane stairs, it might be enough for him to recalculate his profit and loss, with more than three eventful months left until the US presidential elections.
Trump’s remarkable bravery on stage, after his ear was grazed by a bullet, was a pivotal moment in his life. This incident earned him significant sympathy and boosted his confidence, swaying those who were skeptical and hesitant to choose between him and Biden, who has since dropped out of the race.
But the shooting incident has become history, as rapid events eat away at a candidate’s credentials, unless he has a broad and stable popular base. The voter base usually consists of those who rarely change their minds, are concerned with issues, and party loyalists. Each candidate has their own base, and each party has its dedicated followers. The voter competition consists of those who are skeptical and hesitant, the undecided voters.
The awaited Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris may lack significant popularity, sufficient media presence, or widely recognized ideas, but this does not diminish her importance. While Trump is a real estate developer, Harris comes from a legal background. And, 26 out of 46 US presidents came from legal backgrounds as law students and lawyers. For 13 years, Harris served as a district attorney in San Francisco then Attorney General of California. Another significant point of her career was when she reached the Senate; the most significant house in Congress.
Joe Biden dropped out of the race after Trump eliminated him with his popularity the Republican party’s media campaign after Biden’s health issue was exposed. Harris was nominated to replace him, and she will undoubtedly be chosen by the party. But can we truly believe this relatively unknown woman in the world of major players will become a shining star next to a giant personality like Trump? If she wins the race, it will be a major event, and there are those who do not rule out her victory for several reasons, the most prominent of which is not love for Harris, but because of the sharp division among Americans.
Following and paying attention to the American elections is a global matter, not just a local one, due to the influence and supremacy of this great power. Contrary to what some believe, foreign issues are not decisive in the American vote, including the conflict with China, the war in Ukraine, the hostility with Iran, the Israel-Palestine conflict, terrorism, NATO, and others.
The American voter’s priority is domestic issues, which often dominate election campaigns. This does not negate the importance of internal forces with external connections like the Jewish, Armenian, Turkish, and Latino lobbies, but they are not as crucial as economic issues like jobs and living costs, nor social issues like women’s rights, gun control, and education. Abortion is more important than the conflict with China or the Gaza War.
Seeking to understand the American voter process, its issues, and its figures is essential for political culture, which we notice has become more attractive even among young people. Naturally, we focus more on understanding the political agendas of the candidates and parties that matter to us: energy, confronting Iranian expansion and its proxies, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Horn of Africa, military alliances, bilateral relations, and international balances, among others. However, there is little information about these.
We know a lot about Trump from his first presidency, whom most of us discovered, was better than his predecessors, but we know little about his agendas and the officials who will move with him to the White House if he wins the upcoming election. Trump this time around might not be the same unless we see familiar and active faces like Jared Kushner. Meanwhile, we know very little about our region’s issues with regard to potential candidate Harris, but we can infer from the Democratic Party’s agenda.
In my opinion, any candidate who reaches the presidency will generally adopt the high-level foreign policy of the United States, but presidents differ in detail, which can be important. For example, US support for Saudi Arabia in facing Iran will be embraced by the winner, whether Trump or Harris, for the better interest of the US.
But will Trump or Harris support the military agreement negotiated and inherited by Biden? This remains to be seen. Will either of them press for a Palestinian state project or a final solution with Lebanon? And what about the fate of US forces in Syria and Iraq, and dealing with the Iranian-backed Houthi threat to navigation in the Red Sea? All these issues lack clear commitments at this stage, and are not part of the candidates’ election campaigns.
