The drums of war are playing in the Libyan capital, Tripoli. Are we on the brink of another devastating conflict?
Fighting in Tripoli is neither new nor surprising. Conflict has been raging, leaving the city on a knife’s edge every night and morning, since 2011. Nonetheless, this time feels different. A bone-breaking battle seems imminent, as ideologically driven militias subordinate to foreign actors seek to eliminate their rivals.
The escalation should be seen as part of a broader map of local conflicts. Armed clashes are breaking out in several regions of the country, often under the pretext of “extending the authority of the state.” In reality, this is merely a struggle to empower some militias over others and to allow them to gain ground in Tripoli. It has nothing to do with restoring the authority of the state whatsoever - the state has been absent from the capital since 2011.
Civil war in Libya, especially in Tripoli, would be catastrophic for all local parties. Libyan blood has already fueled conflicts that serve foreign agendas, and as happened before, everyone would lose. I believe that those beating the drums of war will end up playing them alone. The only way out of this crisis is through dialogue and negotiation; Libyan voices should be heard, not silenced. Dialogue is the solution. Even if it fails once, it will not necessarily fail the second time, but dialogue must be genuine, flexible, and without prior conditions; every side must be willing to take a step back.
We have always made the same call: dialogue, dialogue, and then more dialogue. If it does not happen, we are all heading straight toward civil war. The brigades in and around Tripoli would inevitably be sucked into the clashes, backing one side or another. The tragedy is that these brigades further regional or ideological objectives rather than seeking to establish a national army. Any advance to the capital will be seen as a purely territorial move - an act of war.
Libyan politics remains paralyzed by rivalries, power struggles, and thirst for power. State legitimacy has been eroded, and reliance on militias has deepened. Guns make the rules, not the law, dragging the country toward the abyss, and the dark tunnel that leads to full-blown civil war.
The very definition of “civil war” - a conflict fought between groups of a single population - should compel us to reexamine what is happening in Tripoli today. These clashes are not mere skirmishes; they are battles between militias with tribal and regional loyalties vying for influence. Maybe we should rethink our reluctance to call Libya’s unrest by its real name.
Many factions in Libya take their orders from foreign actors, playing dangerous games, shuffling the cards and sowing chaos, pushing toward the partition of the country and surrendering it to the rule of party militias. The goal is to recreate a Lebanon-style scenario in Libya. Hollow political leaders are being propped up by foreign-backed factions as parallel armies deliberately cripple state institutions.
And yet, not all leaders have behaved the same way. Some have genuinely strived to establish a civil state that guarantees equal citizenship for all Libyans, rejects ethnic divisions, and refuses to be beholden to foreign allegiances. Libya will only change direction by freeing itself from all forms of sectarian, tribal, ethnic, or partisan fanaticism. A united, indivisible nation must be defended instead. Both inside and outside Libya, several actors are actively seeking to wreck the country and rip it apart.
If war erupts in Tripoli, it will be catastrophic for everyone. There will be no victor. Collective defeat is a foregone conclusion. It is therefore up to Libya’s wise elders, tribal leaders, and sensible figures to prevent this descent to war and silence those who are beating the drums of civil strife.
