As 2025 draws to a close, new dimensions to the rise of Saudi Arabia are emerging. Riyadh’s approach to its relations with the great powers is now a matter of repositioning, rendering projections of full alignment behind any single actor untenable. A new mindset has crystallized since the Kingdom began pursuing Vision 2030 and the geopolitical shifts that have swept through the Middle East.
A proactive and independent Saudi approach has been developed with dynamism that has allowed Riyadh to carve out a new place for itself on the global political map.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s recent visit to Washington, with the security understandings, pivotal arms deals, and technological cooperation agreements that came out of it, and yesterday’s leaks about tensions with Trump regarding normalization with Israel, are all part of a single mosaic. These developments can be read through the evolution of the Kingdom’s approach to a world in limbo amid upheaval and uncertainty: Saudi Arabia First. This guiding principle does not entail isolation or disengagement.
Rather, it signals the Kingdom’s determination to leverage status, economic weight, and political capital in managing its relations with major powers to further its national interests instead of going along with the wishes of these powers.
For decades, the Saudi–American relationship has been founded on a simple quid pro quo “oil for security.” Today, this foundation is changing: the United States has offered an upgraded defensive umbrella and colossal arms deals that include F-35 stealth jets, as well as support for a peaceful Saudi nuclear program; for its part, Saudi Arabia is making massive investments in American infrastructure and technology. At the same time, the Kingdom maintains a broad cooperation with China.
Their bilateral relationship is no longer limited to energy flows, with its relationship with China becoming part and parcel of its effort to transform the economy within the framework of Vision 2030. Through hundreds of infrastructure projects, factories, railways, and clean energy, China has become an essential component of Saudi Arabia’s path toward a diversified industrial economy. As Washington reconsolidates cooperation on security, China is consolidating its economic presence, broadening Riyadh’s margin of maneuver and allowing it to operate as an effective middle power that is not part of any actor’s orbit.
In light of Saudi Arabia’s ascent (which had long been examined by think tanks and research centers) the zero-sum logic of “either Washington or Beijing” has become obsolete. The Kingdom’s approach can be called “flexible non-alignment.” Its adoption of this framework was made patently obvious by its approach to relations with Israel and the United States. Following the November 18 meeting, American newspapers reported yesterday that Trump had forcefully pushed Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords. Nonetheless, the Crown Prince stood firm and maintained his unequivocal terms: there will be no normalization before there is a credible, irreversible path toward establishing a Palestinian state.
The Crown Prince’s stance reflects the clarity of Saudi policy. It was neither a tactical maneuver nor a diplomatic gesture. It was an embodiment of the principle “Saudi Arabia First,” in the full and broad sense: Saudi interests are the priority, and serving these interests requires accounting for the Kingdom’s standing in the Arab and Islamic worlds. In other words, Saudi Arabia will not take any step that does not align with its interests, which are determined by national and regional conditions, nor is it willing to take any action that could undermine the strategic balance that Riyadh is building. No actions will be taken to satisfy the American administration’s desire for a quick political breakthrough or for raw, half-baked solutions that diverge from Saudi Arabia’s sober view.
The fate of the Palestinians is an essential element of Saudi Arabia’s policy on normalization. The Kingdom is not posturing or sloganeering; strategic considerations have compelled it to center the Palestinians. The Kingdom understands that regional stability is a requisite for its mega-projects in NEOM, the Red Sea, and Riyadh. Vision 2030 cannot be founded on a shaky settlement that ignores the central question of the conflict. Riyadh also understands that normalization without a political process would position Saudi Arabia as a party to a perpetual conflict, which would not serve its interests, especially given the global (not merely Islamic or Arab) opposition to any agreement that disregards Palestinian rights. For this reason, the Crown Prince’s response was decisive: normalization is possible, but only if there is a major shift in the Israeli position, and it will never be achieved through American pressure or on political calculations in Washington.
For its part, the White House understands that the Kingdom is no longer a country that can be approached with an “ask, and you shall receive” mindset. Saudi Arabia has become a global economic, investment, and financial power. It is the largest buyer of American weapons, the largest energy supplier to China, and one of the biggest investors in Western economies.
The meeting between Trump and Mohammed bin Salman is a vivid reflection of this shift: the American president sought a quick political win, and the Saudi Crown Prince negotiated from a position of strength, carefully balancing security and economics, Washington and Beijing, and between a critical political moment on the ground in Gaza and Saudi Arabia’s long-term geopolitical interests. The Crown Prince’s firm position is the inevitable outcome of Saudi Arabia’s ascent as a central regional power and its success in expanding the elements of its hard power (armament and deterrence), soft power (investment and diplomacy), and structural power (energy, markets, and finance).
“Saudi Arabia First” is not a slogan but an operational doctrine that has taken nearly a decade to crystallize alongside the rise of Vision 2030. It has reshaped Saudi foreign policy, which now looks to the future rather than the past. It is essential to keep this in mind. In a world being reshaped under the pressure of great-power competition, the decline of American hegemony, and the rise of Asia, Riyadh is emerging as a player capable of leveraging this competition to enhance its position, define the terms of regional peace, and pursue its vision for the Middle East’s future.
If there ever is a normalization of relations with Israel, it will be agreed on Saudi Arabia’s terms: a Palestinian state with a clear trajectory, long-term regional stability, and an agreement that serves Arab interests before serving other agendas. With this maxim, the Kingdom is entering a new phase in its political history and transforming from a state that is consulted to a state whose consideration must be accounted for by every major decision maker.
