Beating the drums of war could summon its return. It could also lead the hawks to offer concessions and ripen the conditions for a settlement. We are in the midst of a major crisis that could be more dangerous than any of the ailing Middle East’s wars.
The parties constantly check their watches. Time is running out. The American–Iranian truce expires on Wednesday. Patience is not among Donald Trump’s virtues, and surrender is not something the generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) can stomach. Another party is watching on and anxiously counting down the clock: the global economy, which is now held hostage in the Strait of Hormuz and caught in a military and economic crisis with implications for countries near and far.
It is no surprise that these fateful days are brimming with schemes, brinkmanship, leaks, and threats. Trump demands that Iran explicitly abandon its nuclear ambitions and refrain from pursuing nuclear weapons in the future. That is why he rejects enrichment and insists on taking possession of the highly enriched uranium currently buried under the rubble of American airstrikes. He also demands constraints to Iran’s missile program, which it has used more against neighbors who had avoided entering the war than its enemies. He further demands that Iran stop using its proxies- those “small armies” fostered, financed, and armed by General Qassem Soleimani. Should Iran comply, its position, boundaries, and role would fundamentally change.
In the days of Ali Khamenei and Qassem Soleimani, Iran expanded as it sought to seize the keys to the region. The Syrian-Israeli border effectively became an Iranian-Israeli border, as did the Lebanese-Israeli border and Israel’s border with Gaza. Iraqi factions joined the “axis of resistance,” and the Houthis arose. Iran encircled Israel with a network of tunnels and missiles, making progress on achieving its dream of cutting the “thread of American interests” in the Middle East.
The picture has changed. The wars that have broken out since the “Sinwar Flood” erased the Iranian-Israeli border in Gaza. They also cost Iran its frontier with Israel via the Syrian “bridge,” and it is set to lose Lebanon as well. The recent statements of President Joseph Aoun are clear and unequivocal: the Lebanese state does not recognize any partner in its decisions of war and peace, and it does not grant any foreign party to speak or negotiate on its behalf. He is openly defying the Iranian tutelage that succeeded Syrian tutelage. This same stance has been expressed by the government of Nawaf Salam and the majority of Lebanese citizens.
The Iranian regime has not collapsed under the weight of American and Israeli strikes, nor was it expected to. It now faces an extremely dangerous test, however. Resuming the conflict would compound its losses. The American military has built up an immense presence in the region. “Economic fury,” the pursuit of floating storage tankers, and the maritime blockades could be more lethal than bombardment from the skies. Iran has learned to adapt to life under sanctions, but its ability to withstand further suffocation is in doubt.
The world anxiously watches the clock. Hopes now rest on the efforts of Field Marshal Asim Munir, an experienced soldier. He was born in a country shaped by its geography. Between India, China, Afghanistan, and Iran, Pakistan is at the heart of Asia’s tensions, as seen in the latest flare-up with India, in which Munir played a role.
Munir holds several cards that allow him to move between Tehran and Washington: the trust of the American president and ties with IRGC leaders that date back to the days of Soleimani. He can also make use of the close ties his country enjoys with both China and the United States, as well as Pakistan’s deep strategic ties with Saudi Arabia - ties that include a defense agreement that was reflected in the deployment of Pakistani fighter jets to the Kingdom during regional escalation.
At heart, Munir is a man of the intelligence apparatus: he led his country’s military intelligence, and then the Inter-Services Intelligence, before becoming Chief of Staff. The latest skirmish against India, during which Munir combined audacity and responsibility, reinforced his reputation as a guarantor of Pakistan’s sovereignty and stability.
Munir knows the cost of conflict. It is not in his country’s interest for Iran to sink into chaos or fragment, opening the door to cross-border turmoil. Nor is it in Pakistan’s interest for Iran to undermine Gulf stability, especially that of Saudi Arabia, which has long supported Pakistan and helped the country overcome economic challenges. He also knows that 47 years of hostility and reciprocal strikes separate Tehran and Washington.
He understands, therefore, that his task will not be easy: he must clear the mines and cross the strait of negotiations, silence the drums of war, and establish a new framework for Iran’s relationship with the US and the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
The region is in a position similar to that of the ships trapped in the narrow strait. The Pakistani doctor must deliver an accurate diagnosis, propose innovative treatment options, and then distribute bandages and guarantees.
Time is running out. The world is watching the clock. A man named Benjamin Netanyahu who is uneasy; he fears that Pakistan’s treatment might deliver the promises he had made to himself and his voters. Munir’s medicine might be bitter, but the failure of his mediation could open the “gates of hell” that Trump has threatened to compel the IRGC to swallow the poison of compromise.
