The world’s attention is fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, which may have become the most famous hostage in history. Blockage of this artery would make the global economy gravely ill. That is why Iran is demanding the heftiest ransom in history for its release. It is also why it could be said that the world is distracted from the daily horrors in Gaza and the aggravating tragedy in southern Lebanon.
Benjamin Netanyahu had hoped to complete the mission in Iran, that is, to launch a new round of the American-Israeli war against it. But going to war alongside the US means there cannot be two leaders, especially when Donald Trump is president. Trump accepts nothing less than the driver’s seat, with no partner beside him.
The convergence of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s calculations during the first strike on Iran did not necessarily entail their continued alignment until the end of the war. Indeed, it did not. The American president opened the door to a ceasefire and negotiations with Iran, and that door remains open. Netanyahu is experienced in bending the terms of agreements and circumventing understandings. Familiar with Trump’s temperament, however, he is compelled to accommodate him and avoid a dispute. Trump’s manner of publicly rebuking NATO leaders taught Netanyahu that caution is needed and that provoking the president comes at a price.
Netanyahu is apprehensive about the provisions of the memorandum of understanding. Lifting American sanctions, reopening Hormuz, and releasing frozen Iranian funds, all before the “mission” has been completed. Trump constantly stresses that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon. Yet amid his torrent of statements, he has not dwelled on Iran’s missile arsenal, nor has he addressed the issue of Iran’s regional proxies.
In ceasefire agreements or truces, Netanyahu often inserts a clause, or at least an implicit understanding, affirming Israel’s right to self-defense. He uses it to perpetuate the war, albeit at a lower intensity. This happened in Gaza, and it is currently happening in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu failed to impose a complete separation between the situation in southern Lebanon and the American-Iranian talks. The proposed understanding between Washington and Tehran involves ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Netanyahu, heading toward elections, wants a security card to play in northern Israel.
Since the “Sinwar Flood,” Netanyahu’s government has explicitly decided to eliminate the Iranian-Israeli frontier that General Qasem Soleimani had painstakingly built in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon through a network of tunnels, missiles, drones, and mobile "miniature armies.” Netanyahu believes that what unites these arenas is the “Iranian thread,” which allowed Hamas to build its arsenal, developed Hezbollah’s arsenal, and turned Syria into a corridor for missiles within the “Axis of Resistance” that took shape after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime.
Netanyahu saw the war on Sinwar as part of the war against Iran. The same applies to the war against Hezbollah’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In response to the “Flood,” Netanyahu decided to implement a major strategic shift: eliminating Israel’s borders with Iran on every front, reshaping the actors on the other side of those borders, and creating “security belts” inside neighboring countries.
While the world is preoccupied with the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel is waging an extremely dangerous war in southern Lebanon, which it sees as a war to eliminate its Iranian frontier on the Lebanese front. By choosing to support Iran, Hezbollah demonstrated that the previous round of conflict had not deprived it of the capacity to launch rockets and drones at Israel. Israel responded to Hezbollah’s actions by shifting the “yellow line” in southern Lebanon, just as it had previously done in Gaza.
Israeli incursions deep into southern Lebanon are extremely dangerous. Israel has effectively destroyed dozens of villages and towns, and it is now pummeling major cities, such as Tyre and Nabatieh, after Bint Jbeil. Israel has uprooted both people and property, pushing hundreds of thousands toward the Lebanese interior, sparking old and new tensions.
Hezbollah is fighting the Israeli army as it advances into southern Lebanon. It is inflicting losses, but the losses suffered by Lebanon exceed the country’s capacity to endure. Clearing the rubble in southern Lebanon after the war will take a very long time. The same applies to rebuilding infrastructure and then the reconstruction process. It is a war that threatens to break Lebanon’s back and bury it under rubble for many years.
Anyone who understands the fragility of the Lebanese house understands the danger that this house may crack under the weight of war, especially since the majority of Lebanese did not support backing Iran and had previously criticized the support for Gaza.
Faced with Israel’s killing machine, Lebanon has no cards to play. It can do nothing but appeal to America and exert pressure on Israel. Yet to play that role, Washington demands a task beyond Beirut’s capabilities: disarming Hezbollah. Restricting armament to the state would, in practice, mean dismantling Iran’s front in southern Lebanon. Neither Iran nor Hezbollah will accept this, and the price Lebanon is paying is horrific and devastating.
Netanyahu has retaliated to Trump’s desire to prevent the bombardment of Beirut, except through “precise strikes,” that is, targeted assassinations. Yet the war Israel is waging in southern Lebanon is no less dangerous than targeting the capital itself. Raising the Israeli flag over Beaufort Castle is a painful and alarming message, an omen of a new cycle of Lebanese suffering.
Israel’s crimes are horrifying, and Lebanese divisions are deep. The destruction of homes in the South shakes the very foundations of the Lebanese house itself. Will the Lebanese awaken before it is too late?
