The war between Israel and Hamas has changed equations to the same extent that it reinforced others. It will probably continue to do so, given that it is a war of many wars, and it will almost certainly go on for a period whose duration cannot be predicted, with all the “surprises” that its duration could entail.
Israel's arrogance and sense of supremacy have been broken, and it has become evident that security alone, including barriers and walls, does not grant absolute guarantees. Occupation, settlement, humiliation, disregard, and betting on resentments and aspirations eventually fading into oblivion, are not solutions for the actual problems. All of this is good news. It is not only the adversaries and enemies of Israel who welcome this development, it should also stir positive sentiments in far-sighted Israelis and friends of Israel who understand that public affairs cannot be administered by brute force alone. Sadly, Benjamin Netanyahu's current government, which includes the most vile of settlers, reinforced and endorsed Israel’s exclusive reliance on all these wretched remedies and took them to the extreme.
But can these implications bear political fruits?
Worryingly, in our case, identifying who was hurt by these military confrontations is more clear cut than identifying who could benefit. Today, Palestinian patriotism has its strong sentiments but lacks practical tools. Several well-established facts overlooked by the impassioned demonstrate that this is the case: from the split between the West Bank and Gaza to the tattered authority of Hamas itself, to say nothing about the conditions of the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon and perhaps outside of Lebanon, too. Moreover, the current war in Gaza has consolidated the shift that began after 1973: instead of Arab-Israeli wars, localized conflicts with Israel have been fought, and instead of classical armies, populist (mostly Islamist) groups have done the fighting. This was accompanied by a "slimming" of the Palestinian national cause that turned it into a slender body that any powerful actor can distort and exploit as it likes.
In discussing the miserable tools of Palestinian patriotism, we recall the differences between the First Intifada of 1987-8, in which the Palestine Liberation Organization was the sole representative of the Palestinian people, and the second Intifada that broke out in 2000, and then the Palestinian Authority splitting in two in 2007.
The First Intifada, which was peaceful, contributed to setting the diplomatic course that was seen in Madrid in 1991 and then in Oslo two years later. Whatever one thinks of these two developments, they were undeniably better than those that followed and compromised the Palestinian political representation. The scale of violence and the number of victims thereby increased, while achievements and the role of politics decreased. From then on, things have continued to move in this direction, relegating this legitimate cause to abstraction and rhetorical sanctification as others seized its use value.
And “others,” here, refers exclusively to Iran and its camp, who are using the Palestinians to wage a battle to expand their regional influence. This is accompanied by pain and suffering that few other nations have endured. In this regard, the situation of the Palestinians differs only in its scale from that of the Lebanese, whose state decline and weakened national consensus have heightened Iran’s influence in their country and given it the upper hand through Hezbollah.
Thus, the gains, if there are any in the longer term, will be in Iran's. It stands to benefit on three levels: Western countries recognizing that Tehran plays a pivotal role in shaping the region and framing its future, the efforts of Arab countries who believe they are making diplomatic breakthroughs on questions of war and peace being undermined, and the grip of Tehran's allies over their countries being strengthened. Foremost among these allies is the Syrian regime, which might have been waiting a long time for a chance to divert the world's attention from its actions, allowing it to expand both north and south.
Given this backdrop, it seems that the enthusiasm for the blow dealt to Israel, though it is justified and understandable sentimentally, is not backed by a more far-sighted perspective on the current war. It is a quandary summed up by two conflicting emotions that have gripped many of the well-intentioned: on the one hand, joy in having caused harm to Israel, and on the other, not wanting to see Iran benefit.
We have seen a similar situation whose lessons many of us have not learned. In Lebanon and beyond, many rallied around Hezbollah following the July 2006 War, forgetting the assassination of Rafik Hariri and the wave of assassinations that followed just a year earlier, under the pretext that no cries should rise above that of the battle with Israel. As soon as the war ended and the party declared that it had achieved a 'divine victory,' the weight of its tyranny on the lives of the Lebanese increased, as did the intractability of establishing a Lebanese state and building a sense of national consensus. Meanwhile, life went back to normal in Israel. Thus, this so-called “victory” was a triumph over some of those who had celebrated it.
This is a real, major, and in a sense tragic predicament: supporting a cause whose claimants cannot benefit from; only Iran, Bashar al-Assad, and the like can.
The time has come to distinguish between demanding justice and demanding self-destruction, and to seek alternative means to brute force and the “cathartic” bursts of violence in pursuit of justice and rights. Unfortunately, we are starting to see some of the ramifications of celebrating this poisonous Iranian gift. It would not have been hard for anyone with minimal logical thinking capacities to foresee the outcome of an action like that which happened in Gaza. Contrary to the claims of the enthusiastic, we are now further from Palestine than ever, further from achieving justice and attaining rights, and further from reason. This is being said in pain and sorrow one million times. May the innocent civilian victims rest in peace.
