After the Oslo Accords in 1993, every successive American administration failed to make progress in trying to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with the exception of Bill Clinton’s attempt in 2000 to bring together Ehud Barak, the Prime Minister of Israel, and the President of the Palestinian Authority, Yasser Arafat, at the Camp David resort.
Clinton succeeded in getting both men to shake hands in front of the media, but the meeting failed. After that, no American administration was able to assume the role of a successful mediator.
The circumstances today are moving in one direction, which is increasing the parties to the existing conflict. Israel, which felt humiliated after the attack on October 7, turned into a blind monster retaliating in every direction, in a state of mad rage, regardless of any political or humanitarian consideration.
The shock of the attack greatly affected Israel’s allies. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken flew to Tel Aviv declaring that he came as a Jew! A useless and rushed statement, as if he was suggesting that the existing dispute was religious. Amid this emotional state, he embarked on a tour of the Arab region in an attempt to reach an Arab position that condemns Hamas’ actions. Blinken is trying to solve an old, complex problem in a naive way that does not take into account the reality of the Palestinians.
On October 7, the Al-Qassam Brigades committed a massacre against Israeli civilians who were attending a concert. They opened fire on them randomly with the aim of killing as many people as possible. They attacked settlers’ homes and terrorized their residents. Among their dead victims were children, women, and elderly. They even mutilated the bodies of the dead. A total of 125 Israeli civilians were killed within two hours. Those acts do not reflect Islamic morals.
In general, these shameful acts do not seem surprising, as the factions had already sacrificed the lives of their families in Gaza, their children, their elders, and their women, to satisfy their whims, let alone their enemies.
Netanyahu, who awoke in shock at the news of the killings and the failure of the military intelligence apparatus, decided to end Hamas by striking Gaza. He killed nearly 2,000 civilians, 700 of whom were children, then ordered them to leave Gaza to the south in preparation for its invasion. Is it reasonable to displace more than a million within 24 hours? It’s like they are pawns being moved in a chess game. What about patients in hospitals, the disabled and the elderly? The truth is that the atrocities taking place in Gaza against children and defenseless civilians have made the world turn its gaze towards Gaza, forgetting those killed at the dance party.
Israel has achieved some successes over the past two years, which it may lose through its current rampage, especially in its relationship with the countries of the region, which have improved with difficulty and after a long time.
The repercussions of the attack revealed weaknesses in Israel, and saving face became the priority before sitting down to listen and negotiate rationally.
Unifying the Arab stance is the basis for containing the crisis, because the American mediator will not be able to ignore the Arab demands for calm, in exchange for a subsequent dialogue regarding the Hamas movement and the other factions. None of the Arabs, whether Gulf Arabs or others, agrees with what Hamas has committed, because civilians are the red line in international and humanitarian law on any territory.
What is the purpose of pushing the people of Gaza toward the south? Israel says that it wants to strike Gaza - which it imagines would be devoid of its people - and to use missiles to destroy all types of tunnels or deeper shelters built by Hamas.
But the danger does not lie in destroying the tunnels, but in an Israeli attempt to implement a previous plan to settle the people of Gaza in neighboring Arab countries, namely Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf countries. Israel wants to choose the land and the people who live on it, selecting the rulers, and presenting it as a Palestinian state.
It is a dangerous plan that cannot be accepted by the Arabs, but rather contradicts all the peace negotiations that have taken place. The Americans, who guarantee Israel’s security, must be more rational, because it is one thing for Arab countries to stand with the Palestinians until their state is established, but it is another to host the displaced Palestinians, who are unwanted by Israel.
When Ariel Sharon implemented the “disengagement” plan and expelled the Israeli settlers from Gaza in 2005, the goal was to relieve the Israeli security from the burden of protecting the Israeli settlements from a possible attack at any moment by the Palestinian factions. For them, Gaza was hell.
Sharon wanted an Israeli state that embraces all Israelis with demarcated borders and guaranteed protection, security, and flexible commercial movement. Today, Netanyahu wants to empty Gaza of its people under the pretext of getting rid of Hamas and the rest of the factions. The leadership of Hamas and Islamic Jihad are located abroad, not in Gaza. Those in Gaza are executives, who can be removed and replaced.
Israel is exploiting the crisis to solve its problem with Gaza. It had previously tried, during the term of Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, to move the Palestinians to Sinai, finding him receptive.
On the Lebanese front, Hezbollah strikes and runs to simply make its presence known. But so far, it has not actually intervened, and I do not think it will, unless it is prompted to do so. Pressure on the Arabs to receive the Palestinians, and Hezbollah’s intervention from southern Lebanon or the Golan may ignite a fire that will be difficult to extinguish.
The situation is worrying, and the absence of calm will exacerbate violence against civilians. Action must first focus on international and regional efforts to calm the situation. But Israel must understand that Hamas is not the Palestinians. It is a militia that has calculations that differ from Palestinian interests. It would be foolish to fall into its trap.
