The scene before us is extremely fluid. From Washington to Gaza, and from Tehran to Ukraine, we find signs that, unless everyone wakes up to the gravity of these ongoing shifts, a dangerous moment of madness is imminent.
Take the divisions in the United States and the Democratic Party, for example. Chaos has prevailed within President Biden's party amid bickering over replacing him. Indeed, the party has excelled at sowing chaos since Barack Obama emerged as a political force, with the leaks and shifting positions we now see under Biden becoming commonplace.
For the Republicans, it is clear that Trump is very much back. The difference between yesterday’s Trump and today’s version is that now, he knows what he wants and has defined his objectives. Indeed, this is evident from the man he chose as his vice president. Trump will be fiercer, whether in peace or war, as he would be a one-term president if he wins.
All of this is happening in Washington at a time when its allies in the Ukraine war are dazed and confused, first among them the president of Ukraine, who has spoken with Trump over the phone. Here, one might ask: what about our region, that is what concerns us? They are right.
I believe that the fluidity of positions in our region is even more dangerous. The region’s trajectory could eventually compel a reluctant international community to intervene. However, this intervention would come too late, especially given the current escalation, which “some” in the West do not clearly understand, as demonstrated by the constant reversals of US and Western stances on the Houthis, which is the simplest and clearest issue.
At the time of writing, we are seeing reports of an Israeli strike on Hodeidah, in response to a drone attack on a building in Tel Aviv that killed an Israeli, which the Houthis claimed responsibility for. This raises the question: Does the Israeli strike signal a new stance, or are they following the Yemeni adage "kill and then peace will prevail"?
This adage is being applied in the context of Iranian and American efforts to calm things. Israel has exercised its right to deter, while the Houthis have settled for a "media dance," which is all they want!
I have repeatedly used the term "fluidity" because the state of play in our region is easy to understand. However, Washington and the West refuse to fully acknowledge and grasp it, as they want to ensure stability and peace without taking the steps required to do so.
The state of play in our region is clear because Hezbollah is a militia whose primary victims are the people of Lebanon and Syria. Hamas is a political clown show, as is obvious from the fact that the Palestinian territories have become limited to part of the West Bank after its attack on October 7 has brought Israeli occupation back to most of the territory.
As for the Houthis, they have shown us nothing more than “posturing.” They have no political thought, no systematic approach one can engage with, no commitments, and no thought to repercussions, whether in Yemen or the region, the consequences of their actions for maritime trade. The Muslim Brotherhood manufactures nothing but failure. All of the above are components of the other side of terrorism, which has not been crushed.
To ensure regional stability, terrorism, in all its forms and sects, must be eradicated.
Today, Hezbollah occupies Lebanon and parts of Syria, and it is active in Iraq and Yemen. It presents the same scene as Sunni terrorism, which has been defeated. Therefore, it is time to eliminate all terrorism, regardless of the source. After that, Israel must be held accountable through a peace process.
Any other course of action would engender more wars and destruction.
TT
A Shift… Or ‘Kill and There Will Be Peace’
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