The American people and the rest of the world will know which candidate will win the presidential election in just a few days. To an outside observer, it seems that the Earth has stopped turning in anticipation of the results of this election.
Most of the reporting in the US on the November 5 elections suggests, in one way or another, that the electoral process might not be peaceful. Some have pointed to the possibility of a delay in the announcement of the final result as the courts adjudicate on cases brought forward by both sides.
The insecurity and tension are palpable. Indeed, two assassination attempts have been made against one of the candidates (Republican Donald Trump), and the first attempt would have ended his life if it were not for a stroke of good luck.
The reports I have seen recently stress that those working at the centers are being increasingly threatened by individuals and groups. Many of the individuals making these threats have been arrested and are awaiting trial and federal authorities, including the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security, are on high alert as they prepare to prevent a repeat of what happened at Congress on January 6, 2021.
The latest New York Times and Siena College opinion polls, published last Monday, indicate that neither candidate is in the lead, with both projected to win 46 percent of the vote. Seven states will decide the winner: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Despite the millions of dollars that both parties have spent on advertising, no candidate has a clear edge in even these states.
We also recently saw noteworthy reports on the sudden and unexpected rise in Arab and Muslim support for the Republican candidate, Trump, in Michigan.
On the other hand, media outlets also suggest that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will also receive the support of Palestinians and Iraqis. Michigan is important for both candidates because it grants the winner 15 Electoral College votes.
Forty million voters in several states have cast their votes, through early voting and mail-in ballots, just under two before November 5. Most of the early votes have gone to Harris. However, US media reports suggest that this was to be expected, as Democrats do better at this stage even when they end up losing the Electoral College.
The major issues have defined the candidates' campaigns: immigration, the economy and the right to abortion. The Republican candidate is ahead of his Democratic rival, according to polls, on immigration and the economy, while the Democratic candidate leads abortion rights.
With regard to the gender gap, it is clear that Harris enjoys a significant lead in support among female voters, while candidate Trump has a strong lead among male voters. Interestingly, Harris does not enjoy the support of Black men, whose reservations remind us of the hostile feminist campaign against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Black American voters are refusing to cast their votes for a Black woman, just as white American women had refused to vote for a white female candidate due to her perceived arrogance.
Most of the signs, so far, point to a Trump victory. However, indicators and public opinion polls do not determine which candidate will become president in January 2025. If they did, the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, would have won in 2016 and become America’s first woman president.
Nonetheless, the divisions within Arab and Muslim communities are noteworthy. As far as I know, the majority voted for Republican candidates in the past. It seems that the Israeli genocidal war on Gaza has cast a shadow over the scene, driving many to refrain from voting for the Democratic candidate due to the Biden administration's Middle East policies and his support for Israel. It is as though they are disregarding the Republican candidate’s record and his pro-Israel positions between 2016 and 2020, and being the only American president who dared to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
