Many people say that Donald Trump, the returning US president, is merely making loud noises. My opinion, in short, is that Trump could be anything – a sound bomb or a devastating bomb.
We are facing four years that will likely be extraordinary. They could be the nightmare we fear – Palestinians without land – or the dream – a Palestinian state. His policies might lead to a dangerous regional war with Iran, or he could achieve a regional peace that concludes forty years of battles and tensions with Iran, both in the Arab world and the West. He might cause the fall of regimes and widespread chaos, or he could help establish security and peace in the region.
This is not an exaggeration – Trump is an unpredictable figure. We cannot ignore the current US president, whether he is mocking or serious. As the poet al-Mutanabbi once said: “If you see the fangs of the lion bared,
Do not assume the lion is smiling.”
He has not yet completed a hundred days in office, yet he has already dismissed senior officials at the FBI, disrupted the activities of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), relocated ten thousand of its employees, halted all US foreign aid, withdrawn from the World Health Organization, and begun using military transport planes to deport undocumented refugees from the US in an unprecedented scene. Some Latin American presidents were forced to receive them. Meanwhile, the Canadian prime minister quickly deployed around a quarter of a million military personnel and border guards to prevent smuggling and illegal crossings, and Mexico did the same. In Brussels, the capital of the European Union, meetings have begun to discuss Trump’s intention to withdraw support for Ukraine and to raise tariffs on European goods.
If these actions do not clarify Trump’s character and management style, then what comes next may be even more significant.
Before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington, Trump lifted the ban on selling 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, which had been imposed by his predecessor Biden, and announced efforts to prevent Iran from selling its oil.
Now that we have “gotten to know” the US president, who is now more powerful than before, we must reassess the issues he will engage with.
Rejecting engagement with him comes at a high price. While Trump has repeatedly stated that he will not use military force against his adversaries or those who disagree with him, he still has the ability to harm those who oppose him. Trump wields two weapons: The first is economic and financial. For example, he can raise tariffs, but fortunately, Arab exports to the US are limited. He can also cut aid, and the Arab countries that receive assistance must reorganize their affairs if they intend not to cooperate with him. They should not expect alternative support from Arab or other nations, as Trump will punish governments and international banks that assist those who defy him.
The second weapon is political. Disputes with Trump will be exploited by opposition forces. Groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, for example, may try to take advantage of the political climate. On one hand, they will incite opposition to Trump and embarrass Arab governments through propaganda campaigns aimed at weakening them. At the same time, they will seek to get closer to Trump’s administration and cooperate with it for the same goal, just as they did in 2011.
The two main issues for Trump’s administration are Iran and Palestine. Several crises stem from them, including the Houthis in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq.
If Israel is determined to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it will have to wait until Trump’s expected negotiations fail, which are likely to start soon. It would not be surprising if the Iranian leadership cooperates with Trump, as it has already lost more than half of its external power following the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah’s capabilities and the fall of the Assad regime. Additionally, the pressure on Iran will intensify as Trump has decided to reinstate the ban on its oil sales. It is also likely that he will put the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities on the table, which would strip Iran of all its bargaining chips.
The most urgent and dangerous issue is Trump’s project to empty Gaza of its population. More on this to come.
