When US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East Morgan Ortagus was born on July 10, 1982, the scene was as follows: General Ariel Sharon’s tanks were surrounding Beirut from all sides and his jets were bombing the capital without mercy. The general of the city of the time was Yasser Arafat, who was championing the Palestinian cause. Arafat sought to fight on for another six months before taking a decision over what to do next, recalled Hani al-Hassan who was in the battle.
Back then, Lebanese Prime Minister Shafik Al-Wazzan would contact King Fahd bin Abdulaziz, who would in turn contact Ronald Reagan to secure a drop of water or a spark of electricity to the first Arab capital that Israel had ever besieged. Hezbollah had not been born yet, but it will be formed at an Iranian initiative and Syria’s help in wake of the barbaric Israeli invasion.
Back then, Hafez al-Assad was in power in Syria. The image is different now. His heir, Bashar, is now living in “humanitarian” asylum in Russia and Ahmed al-Sharaa is the new ruler in Syria.
Back then, Beirut realized it had to make a difficult and painful choice: either suffer at the hands of Sharon’s jets or take the advice of American envoy of Lebanese origin Philip Habib. The game was obvious. Whenever the city showed resistance, the jets would strike again to discipline and force it to agree to the US envoy’s conditions.
Initially, the situation was compared to Stalingrad and Hanoi, but the siege and breaking of the balance of power left Arafat and his PLO no choice but to flee by ship. And so, the Palestinian cause sailed towards a new exile.
The world changed immensely since Ortagus’ birth and her last visit to Lebanon. The Soviet Union collapsed and the world came under the rule of the sole global power: the United States. Osama bin Laden launched his attacks on September 11, 2001, Saddam Hussein was toppled in Baghdad and Iranian influence flooded the region. Some two decades later, Hafez al-Assad's statues were toppled in Damascus, and leaders of Hamas, including Yahya al-Sinwar, who launched the al-Aqsa Flood Operation, and Hassan Nasrallah and several of his colleagues were assassinated.
When Ortagus arrived in Beirut last week, the “general” of the White House Donald Trump had just launched a trade war whose results cannot be predicted by the greatest of experts, the terrified Europe was criticizing America’s betrayal of its allies and China was assessing the extent of the challenge ahead. Meanwhile, small countries were preparing for rising prices of goods, poverty and great unrest.
While Vladimir Putin was rejoicing at his victory in Ukraine, with American blessings, US jets were bombing Houthi rocket caches and tunnels in retaliation to their attacks on Red Sea shipping. The Houthis were deluded into believing that the Americans would simply leave the marine waterways under the control of the factions and their Iranian arsenal.
And at the time when Iran couldn’t save its proxies, Tehran had to reply to Trump’s letter. This isn’t just about agreeing to dismantle the nuclear dream, but it goes beyond that to abandon becoming a major country in the region that boasts about holding the keys to war and peace in four countries. Trump threatened Iran with “very bad things” if it did not surrender the management of the region and its sorrows to the Americans because it has not right to them in its delusion of being a “major country in the region.”
When Ortagus arrived in Beirut, Benjamin Netanyahu’s forces were continuing to tear Gaza apart. No people since World War II have suffered as much as the Gazans and more is still to come. Evacuation orders keep coming and Hamas is holding on to the remaining hostages, while Netanyahu turns the whole of Gaza into a hostage that is drowning in blood, rubble and despair. The number of Palestinians who will be released in swaps is much less than the number of graves Netanyahu has dug for the people of Gaza.
Israel is drawing a security belt by fire in Gaza, the same way it did when it decimated Lebanese border villages. It is demanding a similar security belt inside Syrian territories and does not hesitate to warn Türkiye against deepening its influence in Syria.
Joseph Aoun, Nawaf Salam and Nabih Berri have very difficult tasks ahead. They know what it means for the war to erupt again in Gaza despite the ceasefire and mediations. They also know the extent of the free rein that Trump has given Netanyahu. They are aware that this time the situation demands more than just applying weak bandages to enflamed wounds. They know what it means when Israel warns that it will no longer allow what it perceives as dangers to lurk by its border. The American-Israeli demand is clear: disarming factions, not just persuading them to agree to a ceasefire. They know that waiting is not the best advisor and that dangers lie ahead.
The Lebanese are preoccupied with the American visitor. They dig up her history to learn more about where she has worked before. A commentator, spokeswoman and analyst. They know that the conclusions the beautiful visitor will draw will impact the situation in Lebanon. The country cannot withstand the possibility of a return to war. Hezbollah cannot go to war, especially after seeing the developments unfold in Yemen and Syria. Israel and the US are pressuring to take Gaza out of the military aspect of the conflict with Israel. They are also pressuring to take Lebanon and Syria out of it as well.
Aoun, Salam and Berri are aware of the severity of the situation and the major imbalance in the balance of power. They know that this is a phase of painful choices in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. They recall that when Ortagus was born, they had to choose between Sharon’s jets and Philip Habib’s conditions. They know that today they need to choose between Netanyahu’s jets and Ortagus’ conditions. They know that wrong choices in calculations have led to catastrophes in the past. Israel today is more barbaric than ever and they will naturally wait and see what Trump has to say to Netanyahu when they meet.
