It is difficult to single out one aspect of US President Donald Trump’s pivotal visit to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, as the most prominent or important. The visit was clearly not merely made for investment deals alone. Rather, it amounts to a turning point that consolidates new power dynamics in the Middle East, giving rise to strategic shifts that are hard to ignore: the obvious decline of Iran’s regional influence, the failure of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to impose its agenda on the White House, and the unprecedented rise of Saudi influence in the region and beyond. Meanwhile, Russia’s role and presence in the region is waning, with an aloofness bordering on complete absence from China.
The most apparent conclusion to draw about his Gulf visit is that it has solidified Saudi Arabia’s position as a major three-dimensional regional power: a force for regional political stability, a global economic and investment hub, and an effective player in international diplomacy and security. The Kingdom is no longer content with remaining a traditional Western partner or an energy partner. It has become central to conflict resolution and peace global efforts, a decisive player in reshaping the regional order, and a partner in global decisions. Saudi Arabia in particular, and the Gulf states more generally, has redefined itself. Instead of reacting to developments, it shapes them, becoming a security guarantor for its regional and international partners.
The most striking reflection of this new role is its newfound influence on Trump. Saudi Arabia managed to convince Trump to lift sanctions on Syria, reflecting the Kingdom’s capacity to take the initiative, use leverage, and negotiate. This achievement is not only a diplomatic victory, but also reflects the scale of Saudi Arabia’s growing influence. Moreover, this move reveals strategic awareness on Saudi Arabia’s part. It understands the importance of reintegrating Syria into the Arab fold, specifically within the alliance of Arab moderate states. Despite its current frailty, Syria maintains its symbolic and political weight, granting the moderate Arab camp strategic depth and shutting down the aspirations of extremists and ideological bravado, as well as filling any vacuum that could be exploited by regional powers.
The implications of this success go beyond Saudi Arabia’s position in the region, as the implications for Syria’s domestic situation are difficult to overstate. It now has a chance to rebuild the state, mend Syria's national political and social fabric, regain its political independence, and create an economic environment that allows for the return of refugees. Syria has returned to the Arab world, and the state is now back in the hands of the Syrian people.
On the Palestinian front, the growing divergence between Trump and Netanyahu, particularly regarding the continuation of the war on Gaza, could potentially lead to a shift in US policy. The US has historically offered unconditional support to Israel, but Trump’s new administration may find itself compelled to listen to the positions of its Arab partners, foremost among them Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, who are increasingly presenting themselves as the guarantors of any future political settlement, including one that leads to an end to the occupation and establishes an independent Palestinian state.
It appears that Israel has lost the unique privilege it enjoyed during Trump’s first term. Gradually, it is becoming a strategic burden on the US administration. There is every reason to believe that Netanyahu is losing his cards, one by one: setbacks in Gaza, failing to divide Syria and inflame sectarian strife, going nowhere with his efforts to obstruct Lebanon’s path to reclaiming its sovereignty, and losing his influence over US decisions. Has the countdown to his exit from the scene truly begun?
Here, one cannot overlook the regional shift precipitated by the decline of Iran’s over Arab territories, especially in light of President Trump’s optimism about the prospects of a new nuclear agreement with Tehran. His effort to reach a deal suggests that Washington intends to recalibrate its relationship with Iran, in order to avoid indirect military intervention in the region. It also aligns with Saudi Arabia’s efforts to rebalance regional dynamics, stand in the way of sectarian projects, and render national sovereignty the sole legitimate alternative to the sectarian legitimacy that Iran has sought to impose through its proxies.
The hope is that any agreement will lead to a shift in the Iranian regime’s behavior. The new role that Saudi Arabia is playing could be an attractive model that compels Iran to correct course and avoid regional marginalization, joining the club of “normal” states instead. Iran could understand that this serves its interests, if Tehran comes to realize that its ideological project is no longer viable.
Trump’s Gulf tour has redefined regional priorities and affirmed that legitimate actors who can impose stability are the ones shaping the future. The Middle East is currently witnessing the rise of a new American approach that is being developed, this time, in close coordination with regional partners.
Someone likened the scene of the US-Saudi summit to a spaceship preparing to take its passengers to new worlds as others stand watching from the runway, convinced that it's all nothing more than science fiction. Ahmed al-Sharaa made up for lost ground and managed to get on the ship, while many others, including Lebanon, are still striving to qualify to get on board.
