While the next phases of the Gaza agreement and its implementation are shrouded in ambiguity, the broad trajectory of the Levant, as we can gather from this agreement and others, is not obscure.
The un-regrettable demise of an entire ecosystem of forces and ideas, after it had tasked itself with molding and engineering the region for decades, is unequivocal. “The resistance” has collapsed: not only have the militias that manifest it been dilapidated, it has also collapsed as a regime and method for dictating foreign and domestic policy - that is, for dictating the terms of the relationship among “its people” and between the latter and the world.
“The cause” has also collapsed, both as the chronic confiscation and manufacture of Palestinian suffering and as a veto over the wishes and sovereignty of neighboring states.
In turn, the “Islamic Revolution” has collapsed as both a socially and nationally implosive principle and as a model for hindering progress and obstructing modernity’s path to its homeland and the region.
In strategic terms, the “Axis of Resistance” has collapsed as well; some of its regimes have already fallen, while others are teetering on the edge of the cliff. Accordingly, the notion of a powerful and intimidating “big brother” sheltering small servants has also fallen.
Islamism - both Sunni and Shiite - is a common thread that, with the exception of the Assad regime, runs through all the components of this system. That allows for comparing their blow with that suffered by the Arab Nationalist (Nasserist Baathists) military dictatorship in 1967 after they had, for over a decade, been the driving force of the region.
In other words, an entire world of powers and relationships is receding, leaving the Levant with a void that urgently calls on the region to re-found itself at a time when it lacks the tools needed to undertake this task. If political Islam had ascended as the alternative that should fill the vacuum left by Arab nationalism and its regimes after 1967, what is likely to fill the vacuum left by the decline of political Islam?
Deepening apprehensions, the current state of religious, sectarian, and ethnic relations is alarming throughout the region, including in Gaza, where communal groups could rush to fill that vacuum through violent means, leading to belligerent infighting. This apprehension is premised on real causes for concern, foremost among them the fact that all the pacts and alliances - both explicit and implicit - that had once been forged in opposition to the forces of the Resistance Axis have become obsolete. In Lebanon and Syria, this sort of collapse typically coincides with a surge of mutual suspicion and hostility among yesterday’s allies.
This development falls into the category of the “national” communities’ increasing divergence from one another and atomization after having long repressed the questions that should have been deliberated and answered following independence. That is how the peoples of the region, from Palestine to Iraq, seem to have lost sight of the tomorrow that today will bring: what sort of homelands will they inhabit, and under what framework?
Meanwhile, the frustration born of defeat, as well as the humiliation and profound comprehensive skepticism defeat brings, only strengthens the elements fueling internal strife, which are already strong enough.
October 7 and its repercussions were not just military setbacks. They pose existential questions to all the peoples of the Levant, not for the Palestinians alone: Who are we? What is our social contract premised on? And where are we headed? It seems that it will not be easy for any “Noah” to survive this “flood.”
As a result of the inveterate inertia of the Levant’s mainstream political culture, and given the accumulated failures to change oneself, the task bringing this change about was left to Israel. The genocidal spite that shaped its implementation of this undertaking has allowed Israel to build an imperial strategic sphere around itself, obliging everyone to deal with this situation as a fait accompli for the foreseeable future.
If this development is reassuring to some, because they believe that it consolidates the end of the hostilities that have sprung from deadly “cause” and paves a path toward regional peace and stability, others are haunted, with good reason, by fears that this development could add a lot of fuel to flames of domestic strife - that certain communities could, with the belligerence and vengefulness we are familiar with, leveraging this shift against other communities. Benjamin Netanyahu and his coalition maintaining power would add credence and viability to this sort of assumption.
Completing this bleak picture is this deceptive culture whose denial ends only where its declarations of victory begin, considerably dimming this already gloomy vision of the future. Every second, it launches a political and informational October 7 that completes what it did that day, pummeling the mind and reason while absolving those responsible for this tragedy from blame.
Nonetheless, one signal that has not received the attention it deserves emits some light. The most frequently repeated argument in defense of Trump’s “plan” for Gaza has revolved around the need to stop the killing immediately, though we should not forget that many who have echoed this sentiment did so merely to clean their image or distract from their defeat. We know that premising political ends on such ground has never been a hallmark of our region’s mainstream political culture, which, following the logic of the “million martyrs,” has compelled our dominant forces to orient their struggle towards “winning” a million martyrs.
So, is this alternative way of seeing things and the world destined to take root and prosper, potentially humanizing this deeply morbid political culture?
