US President Donald Trump has kicked off a long and crucial trip to Asia, the first of its kind in his second term. He has headed to Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea, and will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit.
The summit’s theme, “Building A Sustainable Tomorrow,” rests on three main pillars: enhancing regional integration, bridging the digital divide and promoting sustainable growth. However, a chasm separates the gap between the summit’s optimistic rhetoric and the geopolitical realities on the ground.
One cannot help but wonder: Does Trump want to ease tensions in the Eastern Hemisphere as he hears the drums of war beating in South America? The US Navy is deploying fleets in Latin American waters, seemingly ahead of new military adventures in the continent. It will likely begin with Venezuela and then pivot to Colombia, potentially reaching Mexico, where the “great fentanyl battle” with China is intensifying.
Trump is making his extended tour amid sweeping political, economic, military, and social shifts across much of the continent that have taken both heavyweight powers like Russia and China, and medium powers like the two Koreas and a newly resurgent Japan - where nationalist ideas are once again on the rise - by storm.
To Trump, this trip seems to have a single objective: to lay a new roadmap for US-China relations, either through negotiation or confrontation. Indeed, Chinese President Xi Jinping has shifted from defense to offense: in the run-up to their anticipated summit, after spending most of the previous year responding to US policy, Beijing announced new export controls on rare earth minerals on October 9.
Was China’s move a predictable reaction or a provocative preemptive strike? The answer matters less than the fact that Trump approaches summits as opportunities to strike deals, while “deals” do not seem to fit into Xi Jinping’s thinking.
Today, US-China relations revolve around three key questions and one overarching strategic axis: the fentanyl crisis- Chinese-made narcotics flowing through Mexico and how to stop them; ending China’s boycott of American soybeans; and lifting China’s restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to the United States.
The strategic axis, however, is the delicate balance in Chinese-Russian relations: compelling Beijing to pressure Moscow into ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Most American observers believe that Trump should seek new arrangements with Xi that weaken Russia’s capacity to sustain its war.
It is no secret that since 2022, China has provided critical support to Russian President Vladimir Putin: supplying the latter with large quantities of industrial equipment and components for finished goods, including weapons used in battles against Ukraine, and China has also continued to purchase Russian oil and gas.
Their bilateral partnership has helped prevent Russia’s economy from collapsing and allowed Russian forces to maintain supply lines using domestically produced weapons with the help of Chinese-made machinery and parts.
Meanwhile, Washington’s Indo-Pacific allies are watching Trump’s visit closely, looking for signs of a shift in relations between Washington and Beijing. Will pragmatic trade-offs be agreed to, with the US softening its stance with regard to Taiwan in return for China taking steps to ease Russian pressure on Ukraine, thereby freeing Washington’s hand in the Western Hemisphere and allowing it to revive the Monroe Doctrine?
So far, neither leader has proposed a constructive project for the Asia-Pacific region. Both remain locked in a draining cycle of tariffs, export bans, and retaliatory restrictions that have turned economic interdependence into a weapon.
Middle-powers in Asia have found themselves stuck between the two sides: they want to maintain trade deals with Washington and contain their economic exposure to Beijing. Across the region, governments are hedging rather than leading, with the climate becoming increasingly transactional.
Trump’s stop in Tokyo deserves to be unpacked separately. Japan now has a new prime minister as nationalist sentiments rise. Some have been echoing the slogan “Japan First,” mirroring Trump’s “America First.” This surge of chauvinism raises existential questions about US forces’ presence in Japan since the end of World War II.
Will Trump’s visit precipitate deep shifts in Southeast Asia? Only time will tell.
