Those who believe that sparking or fanning wars in their neighbors’ homes can be done at no cost are mistaken. Once the fire is stoked, it recognizes no borders and does not distinguish between those who sparked it and those who merely live nearby. The events unfolding in Sudan today offer a stark example of foreign interference, affirming early warnings that it would not remain confined within Sudan’s borders.
Chad is now paying the price for its role in fueling the war in Sudan, after it had become a major corridor for arms and mercenaries early on, as has been documented by multiple UN reports. As a country already suffering from domestic fragility and profound security and economic challenges, Chad seemed in a house made of tinder. Its long border with Sudan, the two countries' interwoven social fabric, and the broad availability of weapons in the region all make the fanning of war in Sudan a highly dangerous gamble.
Accordingly, the shocking death of seven Chadian soldiers in a clash with elements of the Rapid Support Forces who crossed the border should be surprising. At first, Chadian websites sought to blame the Sudanese government. However, the truth could not be concealed or obscured, as it was (typically) documented by the Rapid Support Forces’ own fighters in videos that spread across social media. In the clips, they boast of their incursion deep into Chadian territory and of the battle in which the Chadian soldiers and their commander were killed, chanting slogans such as: “Chad is liberated... we’re done with Sudan, now Chad.”
The Chadian government settled the matter in an official statement holding the Rapid Support Forces responsible, affirming that RSF elements crossed the border illegally and “carried out an armed operation on Chadian territory targeting defense and security forces and civilians, resulting in the killing of seven Chadian soldiers, the wounding of others, and the destruction of property.”
This was not the first such incident, and it will not be the last. Last month, two Chadian soldiers were killed in a drone attack on a garrison in a border town. Despite their attempts to deny responsibility and attribute the attack to the Sudanese army, the Chadian army’s general staff issued a statement holding the Rapid Support Forces accountable and warning of the consequences.
Chad has fanned the flames of war in Sudan and, according to numerous indications and international reports, has been a key corridor for weapons and mercenaries sent to the Rapid Support Forces, even as it has continued to deny supporting any party. Nevertheless, several reports have spoken of cargo flights carrying military equipment landing at Chadian airports en route to the Rapid Support Forces, in addition to the documented participation of Chadians.
Chad’s position was not like this at the start of the war. It shifted from neutrality to supporting the Rapid Support Forces as a result of its assessment that the greatest threat to the regime was the influential Zaghawa in Chad, who have tribal ties and relationships with the Zaghawa of Sudan. This assessment was based on the assumption that the Rapid Support Forces’ control of Darfur would help the government in N’Djamena prevent Zaghawa rebellions within Chad. Financial considerations were also a factor; support of the Chadian government was used to turn it into a tool for adventures aimed at controlling, or dismantling, Sudan.
Chad’s problem is that it was lighting a match next to a barrel of gasoline: its domestic fragile situation and tribal balances. Aligning with the Rapid Support Forces, who have committed horrific massacres in Darfur, was enough to stir domestic strife and, given the tribal connection between both sides of the border, undermine the cohesion of the Chadian army itself.
Today, Chad has begun to reap the repercussions of its miscalculations in Sudan. Internal tensions are on the rise, and there are reports of discontent within the army, alongside growing warnings of a possible infighting that could threaten Deby’s government, especially with the Rapid Support Forces’ border violations and the deaths of Chadian soldiers. As the Sudanese army advances on the ground and gradually tightens the noose around the Rapid Support Forces, RSF incursions into Chadian territory remain likely, as is the spillover of unrest across the border.
Whoever pours gas on a fire in his neighbor’s house will neither feel safe nor find peace, for it will spread to his own, especially if his own house is made of tinder. What happened in Chad may well be repeated in other countries that became entangled in fanning Sudan’s war and were drawn into the scheme against it.
Sudan’s stability is a fundamental pillar of stability of its region. Fueling the war there and perpetuating it was only ever going to fuel the refugee crisis, proliferate armament, fragment fragile neighbors, and undermine regional instability. At this point, the question for those involved will not be whether the flames will reach them, but when and at what cost.
