The current Iranian regime was born from the embers of alarm. Khomeini’s revolution took on a responsibility that goes beyond the country’s means, despite its position and wealth. Revolutions are similar to individuals; victories make them arrogant, reckless and risk-takers. Khomeini imposed authoritarian rule and still runs the country from his grave.
Teenagers are not blamed for having wide-ranging and contradictory dreams, but they will be held to account if they continue with that juvenile mindset as they age. The same applies to revolutions: keeping teenage dreams is a suicidal and destructive project.
The Iranian revolution refused to learn from other revolutions. For decades, Fidel Castro tried to fuel a fire in the United State. He almost caused a nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. After several missteps, he gave up his lofty ambitions. Now, Cuba is plunged in darkness with no electricity amid a fuel shortage.
The communists in Vietnam embarrassed and defeated the American empire, forcing it to make a humiliating withdrawal. Victory did not lead them to suicidal recklessness. They set combatting poverty as a priority and now continue to attract American tourists and investors to fend off the ambitions of Xi Jinping’s comrades in China.
I won’t go on listing examples, but the lessons from history are stark. American imperialism was Mao Zedong’s number one enemy. Understanding economic figures, the balances of power and projects of international hegemony, led Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai to hold a secret meeting with “imperial envoy” Henry Kissinger. Zhou was skilled at defending his country’s positions, and he did not act the way Abbas Araghchi did with Steve Witkoff during their last round of talks.
The Iranian revolution was not born of the world of two camps, or the Sunni-majority in the Islamic world, or the Arab-majority in the region. The major coup championed by the Khomeini revolution was confronted by three powers or parties. The first was the American presence in the Middle East and its network of relations and interests in this wealthy region that is imperative to the stability of the global economy. The second is the “cancerous growth” that must be destroyed that is Israel. The third are the forces of moderation in the Arab world whose economies must be protected through international relations, starting with a special relationship with the US.
Iran was worried about the obstacles that would have prevented it from achieving its major coup. It soon turned into an alarming Iran after it decided to use all possible means of violence to achieve this agenda. The Iranian leadership, similar to Qassem Soleimani, believed that the problem started with the “American string” that protects balances that Iran wanted to destroy.
And so, Iran fired the first shot in the war with the US in 1983 when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Marines headquarters in Beirut, leaving over 200 people dead. Then, in order to avoid a direct confrontation with the US, Iran tasked factions and militias to help in severing this string. After the US presented it with a priceless gift in toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime, Iran embarked on a mission to surround the main countries in the region, most notably Israel, with rockets, drones and tunnels. It was evident that Iran sought to turn several countries into hostages whose will and ability to take decisions are broken in order to push them to abandon the military and defense relations that can protect them, especially with the US.
In recent years, the contrasting paths taken by each of the Gulf and Iran became stark despite the courteous statements issued between them. The former chose the path of progress, development, technology, education and openness to improve the lives of their people, while the latter insisted on the path of hegemony. Iran failed in attracting the people of the Gulf to its project. It also failed in breaking the will of Gulf countries that chose to maintain their own independent decision-making.
Saudi Arabia tried tirelessly to train the difficult Iranian neighbor on good neighborliness, but Iran’s ambitions of hegemony prevailed. As soon as the war erupted, Iran fired its rockets and drones at Gulf Cooperation Council countries, launching much more at them than at Israel.
It is evident that Iran has played all and its most dangerous cards. It expanded the war to include the Hormuz Strait, energy and nuclear facilities, and the safety and stability of Gulf countries, even reaching the far-off Diego Garcia base. We are now in the middle of a crushing war that will change the features of every party involved once it is over.
Questions remain: Does the wounded Iranian supreme leader have the desire to stop the destructive war? If he does, does he even have the ability to do so? Iran’s major coup project has collided with Donald Trump’s America, the same America that killed Qassem Soleimani. Who controls decision-making in Iran? Can the supreme leader accept a ceasefire on the ruins of the major coup project? Will he follow in Khomeini’s footsteps and drink from the poisoned chalice even though he is no Khomeini and the poison is much deadlier? What if the supreme leader, or whoever is acting on his behalf, acts like Yehya al-Sinwar, leading Iran to the same destruction seen in Gaza? It is obvious that the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation and the “flood of tunnels, rockets and drones” engineered by Soleimani are connected, but the war is raging without its engineers.
