Despite numerous claims and counter claims by Iran, Israel and the United States about the possible outcome of their current war one thing is clear: None of the trio have achieved the goals they set for themselves when they lit its fire.
On the Iranian side the late Ali Khamenei had hoped that by adopting the Samson option he would provoke a brief regional war with limited damage to his Islamic Republic because he would step in and offer another of his “heroic flexibility” tricks before things get out if hand. He also hoped he would be allowed to do then pirouette himself and re-energize his moribund regime for a few more years.
However, things didn’t go as he fancied.
His “heroic flexibility” was designed to come after the first wave of attacks by Israeli and American bombers targeting part of Iran’s military infrastructure. However, as he wasn’t there to do his part Israel and the US had to go for a second wave of bombings on targets fixed by Artificial Intelligence.
When that too didn’t produce the “heroic flexibility” President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had no choice but continue with a third wave of bombing, this time targeting Iran’s industrial infrastructure on a scale not known since World War II.
President Trump tried to find someone in Tehran who would do the “heroic flexibility” part of the script written by the late supreme leader. When he didn’t find anyone, Trump decided to invent a new “leader” in Tehran with whom he claimed was having “fruitful talks” to end the war. When it became clear that there was no such leader in Tehran, Trump decided to do the “heroic flexibility” part himself by claiming he had achieved regime change in Tehran and would leave the war in two or three times.
Netanyahu, the third part of this tragic triangle, had entered the fray with great confidence and high hopes. He had achieved something no other Israeli leader had ever done, getting the US to join an Israeli war to topple the Iranian regime and even install a new one in Tehran built around a new Iranian opposition party in exile called National Rising, which in its manifesto puts the establishment of close ties with Israel as one of its highest priorities.
This was also the first time that the US was involved in a war without an American general in exclusive command of operations. Netanyahu underlined that fact by expressing his gratitude for the help “our American allies” provide. In other words, the US was signing from a hymn-sheet written by Netanyahu.
Outside the trio involved in the war, the world has been divided between those who because they hate Trump or Netanyahu or even America and Israel as a whole, designate the mullahs as victors, and those who translating their hatred of the Iranian regime into a wish for Iran’s destruction as a nation-state, declare Trump and Netanyahu as winners.
Anti-US and anti-Israel circles exaggerate the effect of Tehran’s tactic of inflicting economic pain on the world by playing fast and loose with oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting overall trade in a chunk of the region. That in turn intensifies the effects of the mullahs’ mischief-making. They forget that the global economy dealt with much bigger challenges in terms of inflation, shortage of some key supplies and trade disruption during the Covid crisis.
Seen from a long-term angle, all three protagonists in this war risk emerging as losers. Without a clear regime change in Tehran, neither Trump nor Netanyahu could justify the huge cost in blood, treasure and prestige of this war.
A fish-tail outcome will remind Americans and Israelis that Hamas is still in control of a third of Gaza and recognized as a negotiating partner by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, Trump’s Peace Board is morphing into another of his impressionistic nature-morte tableaux.
The US and Israel may also lose the Iranian people as one of few nations known for their positive view of both. The theme of “you came and destroyed our industrial, economic and scientific infrastructure, but left our torturers in place” is gaining currency among Iranians both at home and abroad. The mass gathering organized by the Iranian exile National Rising Party with the slogan “Thank You President Trump” in front of the White House was prompted by forlorn hopes of an end to 47 years of Khomeinist rule.
By leaving the Khomeinist regime in place, the US may also have a tough task to regain credibility as protector of allied nations that host its military bases. However, there is little doubt that although the Khomeinist regime is badly mauled, the biggest loser in this badly planned and poorly led war will be the Iranian people. The war stopped the national anti-Khomeinist uprising that had started last winter and was resumed after a brief lull just days before the bombers appeared in Iranian skies.
Now, a people facing mass unemployment, shortages of food, water and medicine, and in more than 80 towns and cities even a roof on their heads, would not be immediately ready for another attempt at regime change.
The war has destroyed an estimated 300,000 jobs and almost 60,000 homes producing a quarter of a million homeless people in 20 of Iran’s 31 provinces. Iran has also lost a good many of its warships and merchant navy. Its armament industry has been decimated, and its vast nuclear project put back by years if not decades.
The war has also taken a heavy toll in terms of historic and cultural sites, some of them part of the human heritage damaged or destroyed by weeks of relentless bombing.
Worse still, the IRGC’s unprovoked attacks on neighboring countries in no way involved in this war may have done lasting damage to the largely tolerant, not to say benevolent attitude, many of them had of Iran even under the mullahs.
On several occasions President Trump threatened to bomb Iran back into Stone Age. Although he came close to doing that, he may have changed his mind because he realized that even in Stone Age people can fight back with stones. The best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.
