Everyone who was expecting the Iranians to see the war in Gaza as their chance to erase Israel after constantly threatening to do so, was shocked by the degree of restraint the Iranians have shown and the regime's capacity to digest the shame felt by its hardliners at home and allies in full view of their adversaries.
So far, it seems that Iran will not enter a direct regional war in response to the unprecedented Israeli offensive in Gaza after the Hamas assault on October 7. Simply put, Iran is not interested in engaging in this conflict militarily. Its primary focus is leveraging the war to consolidate its influence within the Middle East.
Setting aside the fiery rhetoric of Iranian officials and leaders of allied militias, we find that the reality on the ground points to a more calibrated Iranian strategy. Iran’s aim is to enhance Tehran's control over its sphere of influence, particularly in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, while avoiding the perils of a full-scale war.
While the observers turned their attention to the speech of Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah, the more significant development unfolded in Iraq. Abdulaziz al-Mohammadawi, also known as "Abu Fadak," the Chief of Staff for the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) announced that PMF units were put on maximum alert within the last Thursday, "in preparation for any incidents in the days to come."
His announcement sidestepped the chairman of the PMF, Faleh al-Fayyad, disregarding the military and administrative hierarchy that ties the PMF to the Iraqi Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani. In fact, Abu Fadak proclaimed, “We are a state,” in his address to the PMF commanders. This phrase encapsulates every facet of the struggle between Iraqi state institutions and the Iranian-backed militias striving to enhance their legitimacy within the regime and reinforce their total dominance over the state’s decisions, not accepting even Iran’s friends as partners.
In tandem with the PMF's alarming and unprecedented rhetoric, the Iraqi Prime Minister dismissed the head of the Counter-Terrorism Service, Lieutenant General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi, and the Baghdad Operations Commander, Lieutenant General Ahmed Salim. He appointed Lieutenant General Karim Abboud Muhammad (who is known to be close to Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais Khazali) as the new head of the Counter-Terrorism Service, and Major General Walid Khalifa Majeed (an affiliate of the Hezbollah Brigades) as the Baghdad Operations Commander.
Iraqi observers and former officials believe that the recent developments in Iraq leave no room for doubt that Iran's strategy for the post-Gaza conflict period is to take its influence in Iraq to new heights and promote figures whose allegiance to Iran is beyond doubt.
Yemen is the second arena that Iran has turned its attention to amid the war in Gaza. The Iranians' aim is to demonstrate the balance of power and impose geopolitical realities on the ground that it wants to see become the foundation of any future political solutions to the Yemen crisis. The missiles and drones supposedly launched in support of Gaza from Yemen, which were intercepted by US ships in the Gulf, do not pose a genuine threat to Israel; rather, they were launched to boost the morale and prestige of the Houthi militia, elevate their standing within Yemen, and amplify their strategic significant in the region. These actions are also a signal to the Gulf states, intended to pressure them to accept that the Houthi militia is not what it had been in the past.
By presenting the Houthis as defenders of the Palestinian cause, Iran seeks to turn the militia from a group embroiled in a domestic struggle to a key player on today's emotionally charged Arab stage. The goal is to erase the image of the Houthis as mere rebels locked in a power struggle and cast them as heroes struggling for a cause that resonates deeply with the Yemeni people and the wider Muslim community.
Iran is aware that the few missiles and drones the Houthis have in their possession are not effective against Israel, but will find their way to the headlines of international media outlets faster than the immense political efforts of the Kingdom to resolve the Gaza conflict through political and diplomatic channels. Through this strategy, Iran seeks to draw the Kingdom into a complex public opinion battle by embellishing reality. Iran wants to change the narrative around the crisis. Instead of a struggle between the sovereign state of Saudi Arabia and belligerent Houthi militias, it wants the conflict to be framed as a conflict between Saudi Arabia and the “resistance” against Israel.
This development poses a multifaceted challenge to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. They are now not only required to defend their territory from Houthi threats but also to do so without being portrayed as opposing the “resistance,” or weakening factions who “are standing up to Israel.”
In Lebanon, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah's recent speech made clear that the militia intends to leverage the Gaza war to bolster the narrative around its arsenal domestically and the role this arsenal plays in protecting Lebanese citizens. Nasrallah explicitly stated that Israel is deterred by Lebanon because of Hezbollah's arms. This suggests that he will ramp up the pressure for the establishment of a political framework in Lebanon that safeguards these arms and prevents "squandering them to benefit Israel." All the criticism leveled at the party for its inaction amid the war in Gaza can be digested in pursuit of its primary objective: reinforcing the legitimacy of Hezbollah’s arms within Lebanon.
In this sense, the Gaza conflict, amid Lebanon’s presidential vacuum and interim government, presents Iran with a golden opportunity to tighten its grip over Lebanon through Hezbollah, by reformulating the country's authorities such that they are either aligned with the resistance or more controlled by it.
This is Iran’s retaliation to the Gaza conflict. The blood being shed in Gaza seems to be the glue Iran is using to bind the components of its axis together, consolidating their unity and reinforcing Iranian hegemony over the states where it has a presence.
The long-term consequences of this strategy are significant. The goal is nothing short of reshaping power dynamics in the Middle East, giving rise to a new framework for the conflict in which the battlefield is as political and ideological as it is material.
