Traditional wisdom holds that the current war between Israel and Hamas over Gaza, which began ten months ago, will now escalate significantly after Israel confirmed that it had been behind the assassination of Fuad Shukr, a senior military commander of Hezbollah, near Beirut.
The day after Shukr's death, an explosion in an Iranian government guest house in Tehran instantly killed Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh. While Israel publicly refused to comment on Haniyeh's death, Mossad officials informed their American counterparts that Israel had been responsible shortly afterward.
Surprised by Israel's ability to assassinate high-ranking figures, Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate. However, they have options for revenge and many vulnerabilities.
Iran's options for offensive attacks on Israel are limited. It can use ballistic missiles and locally-manufactured drones, as we saw in April. However, the April attack was not effective thanks to Israel's highly effective air defenses, which include the Iron Dome and David's Sling missile defense systems, as well as its highly trained fighter pilots. If Iran strikes again, Israel can once again also rely on support from American and British air and naval forces.
Israel’s ability to refuel its fighter jets in Azerbaijan, on Iran's northwestern border, grants it another fundamental strategic advantage, as this extends their range and allows the Israeli air force to easily reach military and economic targets in Iran.
If Iran decides to launch a major attack, Israel can also retaliate using submarines equipped with conventional and nuclear missiles that are stationed in the Arabian Sea, right off the Iranian coast.
To sum up, Israel has a strong edge over Iran militarily, meaning that Tehran will probably proceed cautiously in the event that it decides to clash with Israel directly. This caution was evident in last April’s attack following an Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed a senior Iranian IRGC general.
Given that diplomatic missions are considered national sovereign territory, Iran felt compelled to respond with a missile attack. However, it softened the blow by notifying its adversaries of when the attack would be launched.
In addition to ballistic and cruise missiles, we saw the use of hundreds of slow-moving drones that became easy targets for Israel’s air defenses, as well as those of the US and British forces that came to Israel’s aid.
In the end, only one projectile was not intercepted, and Iran swiftly made clear that it considered the matter closed. Earlier this year, Israeli warplanes, accompanied by refueling tankers, struck oil facilities at the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah in Yemen (a round trip of about 1,900 miles) after a Houthi missile that hit Tel Aviv, killing one person. Since then, the Houthis have used a new route for their missiles, approaching Israel from the Mediterranean Sea.
Israel's war with Hezbollah began in 1982. After countless attacks, Hezbollah eventually expelled the Israelis from Lebanon in 2000. The Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, ordered his army to withdraw from the country, allowing Hezbollah to control the entirety of southern Lebanon.
In 2006, Israel went to war with Hezbollah again. After 34 days of fighting, it ended in a stalemate. However, Israel inflicted immense damage on Lebanon. Israeli warplanes deliberately targeted Lebanon's civilian infrastructure, destroying roads, bridges, dams, and water and power stations. With many Lebanese civilians blaming Hezbollah for their hardships, the party's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah made his famous remark: "If I had known..."
It is said that Moscow also warned Iran against launching a full-scale attack on Israel, fearing for the lives of Russian citizens there. The US administration, through Middle Eastern intermediaries and diplomatic backchannels, informed Tehran that Haniyeh was not killed by an Israeli airstrike but by a remote-controlled bomb that the Israelis had planted in the room where the Hamas leader was sleeping. Tehran was urged to reconsider its plan for a military attack on Israel on the grounds that the explosion killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, without harming any Iranians.
In their efforts to convince Iran not to attack Israel, US officials also warned Tehran that such an attack would be met with a devastating Israeli response that could destabilize Iran's newly elected government and further strain the country's already struggling economy.
This threat suggests that Israel informed the United States that it would target the infrastructure of Iran's oil industry, including oil fields, refineries, pipelines, ports, and tankers, as well as Iranian arms manufacturers, in response to a major Iranian attack.
