Iran Between War and Accumulating Crises

Iran finds itself between the anvil of war and the hammer of its accumulating crises. The nation's internal challenges are mounting, and if Iranian politicians fail to wake from their negligent slumber, the consequences will be catastrophic—not only for the regime but for the entire region.
The notion that war or retaliation, such as responding to Israeli provocations, can bring peace and stability is a dangerous fallacy. No matter the justification for Iran’s actions, the result will remain the same: regional devastation.
Recently, Iran launched hundreds of missiles at Israel, many of which were intercepted, and those that did land caused minimal damage. This marked the second such attack by Iran this year, following a similar barrage of missiles and drones in April. These attacks have exposed the military ineffectiveness of Iran's strikes, with most proving to be futile.
Externally, Iran faces numerous challenges, including the infiltration of its security apparatus at the highest levels and the loss of key leaders within its regional proxies. The assassination of figures like Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Safieddine, along with speculation regarding the death of Ismail Haniyeh, all highlight the ease with which Israel is able to achieve its objectives. This raises serious questions about the extent of Iran's internal security breach—if not outright “treason” among the senior Iranian command, which has often been touted for its obedience and loyalty to Wali al-Faqih.
The killings of Haniyeh, Nasrallah, Safieddine, and other senior leaders like Fuad Shukr and Imad Mughniyeh have been described as an effortless “hunt” for Israel. This has fueled conspiracy theories suggesting that Iran is abandoning its regional arms and proxies in exchange for concessions on other fronts. However, these theories remain speculative, as there is no solid evidence to support them. In the absence of credible sources, the reasons behind these high-profile assassinations of leaders, nuclear scientists, and key figures like Qassem Soleimani, remain shrouded in mystery.
Iran’s Arab proxies have not received any meaningful protection or deterrence against Israeli attacks. On the contrary, Israel has openly and aggressively targeted Iran’s Arab proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen—namely Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis—without facing any tangible response from Iran. These groups, operating within Iran's orbit, were used by Tehran to confront Israel and other perceived enemies, all in the interest of safeguarding the Iranian regime. Yet, despite their role in defending Iran's interests, they have been left exposed to Israeli aggression, which Israel has even publicly boasted about.
For some time, Iran has been navigating a dual crisis: one that is both internal and external. The regime’s strategy has been to act as though these crises either no longer exist or can be bypassed. Iran also behaves as if it can resolve these issues alongside other regional challenges, which it tries to control through its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraq, or the Houthis in Yemen. These groups are often used as bargaining chips in regional conflicts or to manage threats to the Iranian regime itself.
However, the Iranian regime now faces growing unrest not just from abroad, but from within the very countries where its militias operate, such as Lebanon and Iraq. This unrest is not the result of external conspiracies but stems from deep-seated internal dissatisfaction. In these countries, people are waking up from the coma induced by the rhetoric of "resistance." The underlying fuel for their anger is poverty, hunger, unemployment, and rising living costs—not infiltrators, foreign agents, or the so-called "Great Satan." These terms are frequently used by Iranian authorities to explain away their crises, but the reality is that the root of the problem is internal, despite the ongoing wars and missile exchanges with Israel.
The Iranian people have long been suffering under repressed and suppressed crises since the regime of the "Wilayat al-Faqih" came to power, using heavy-handed tactics to crush dissent at home through the Basij security forces and the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Currently, Iran is grappling with an inflation rate exceeding 40%, stagnant economic growth, rising unemployment, and suffocating economic sanctions—all of which have left the government’s treasury nearly empty. The country is drowning in a quagmire of disease, ignorance, and unemployment, which has soared past 15%, while inflation continues to spiral in a nation that, ironically, is a major oil producer.
These crises are not solely the result of external factors, such as the so-called "maximum pressure" campaign against the regime. Rather, they stem from years of economic mismanagement, with Iran’s resources drained by costly ventures beyond its borders. The regime has prioritized funding its proxies and militant arms abroad, generously covering their expenses at the expense of the Iranian people's living standards. This has fueled an unprecedented level of internal dissatisfaction, threatening to erupt from within before any external forces have a chance to destabilize the country.