The voice of rejectionism, despite coming to us from beneath the rubble, has not stopped trying to convince us of its victory. The fact is that turning the page on this rejectionism- its regimes, its militias, and all its defeated self-proclaimed victors- is the only shift unfolding in the region that could be considered an achievement. Hezbollah and its political allies in Lebanon are now seeking to obstruct this achievement, at staggering costs they will likely be borne by the entire country.
It seems that another voice, that of the camp opposed to the rejectionists, sounds like a bald man boasting about his neighbor’s hair as it tries to persuade us that it has triumphed. Within this frame, an extremely optimistic and rosy picture is being painted and sweeping assumptions that do not hold up to scrutiny are being made. In one instance, our claims to victory are underpinned by the notion that “President Trump doesn’t want wars;” at others, we are promised that a miraculous transition, from the hell of ideology to the paradise of technology, is imminent. Some have also suggested that normalization with Israel is heading straight our way, bringing peace to the earth and turning wars into a thing of the past.
Whatever one thinks of him, however, Trump is no miracle worker, if there are any in this world. As for technology, it is not this magic that has been placed above ideology such that we all receive it equally. As for normalization- and this writer has long been an enthusiastic supporter of peace and everything that springs from it- it is not as straightforward as it has been made out to be.
Yes, the Arab and Islamic rejectionists have been resoundingly defeated, and this is a necessary condition for making any meaningful progress on any of the fronts involved. However, it is just as clear that the Israeli rejectionists, the camp of Benjamin Netanyahu and the religious right, have won a resounding victory. That is not good news to anyone: besides their horrific record in Gaza and settlement expansion in the West Bank, the Israelis have continued to slam every door to peace, any and every peace. That is, the most profound source of regional conflict, the Palestinian question, will not be resolved through a settlement, regardless of the concessions offered to reach it. Some may argue that this struggle has lost much of its momentum and potency, and that it has therefore become more difficult for others to utilize it for their own ends. All of that is true.
Nonetheless, it would be misguided to assume that it has evaporated or been erased with the help of a "handful of dollars," and that the problem has thereby been solved. Taking this approach amounts to stockpiling time-bombs- whose explosive potential is compounded by resentments, bitterness, and neglect- that will eventually blow us all to pieces.
The proposals leaked from deliberations regarding Syria are not any more reassuring to those seeking a stable and durable peace. Beyond its domestic issues, some powers, like Türkiye, seem tempted to invest in Syria’s instability or even to exacerbate and broaden the unrest.
These issues and others allow us to say that, in terms of its negative achievements, the Israeli Prime Minister's “new Middle East” prophecy came true: the Axis and its influence have been eliminated. In terms of its positive achievements- what it has managed to add, that is, the foundations for alternatives it has laid- everything “new” the Israelis have introduced amounts to extraneous and putschist frameworks that has no ground to stand on nor a segment of society to rely on, even if it can inevitably attract collaborators, followers, and those who are captivated by power.
More consequential than Israel’s actions, however, is the inaction of the Levant itself, which has hobbled the shift currently underway and raises concerns in the longer term.
The triumphant and optimistic rhetoric we have been hearing might turn out to be a veil over answers to the existential questions confronting the region and the conditions and configurations of our countries. Indeed, this moment of sweeping change has not been met by any effort to anticipate or keep up with it. One need only consider the domestic affairs and communal dynamics in the countries of the Levant to conclude that sleeping on silk offers no protection.
What preparations has the region made for a post-rejectionist world? Can we, in any Levantine country, expect the transformation of our governance structures- that, as has already happened in Syria- to be a seamless process that is not driven by vengeance? What sorts of ideas are currently being deliberated in public debates about this existential juncture and our future?
The fact is that the devastation we have seen over the decades, coupled with the fact that our countries’ national fabrics had been frail to begin with, means that additional effort will be needed to fix things, and we have made almost zero effort. Iraq has yet to initiate such a testing process, but it is not difficult to foresee its results if this test is ever taken. Lebanese politics, in turn, seems confined to the proposals that US Envoy Tom Barrack brings with him, while Syrian politics has essentially been reduced to figures of the money currently coming in or expected to soon. These are, of course, not trivial issues, especially not for the immediate and foreseeable future. However, the existential crisis awaits us is much bigger, and it presents a far more internal and political challenge. As for denying this crisis- which would, to an extent, be to drown in a cup of water- it reflects a shared culture that binds us together: the rejectionists deny their defeat, and their adversaries deny their existential crisis.
