In the midst of the Israel-Hamas war, which started more than two weeks ago, two other countries are repeatedly also mentioned: Iran and Lebanon. Israel has said clearly that if Hezbollah enters their conflict with Hamas, it will attack Iran. The recurrent visits of Western leaders to Israel also gives further backing to the threats made by the Israeli prime minister.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has said that it won’t enter the conflict, but it has openly backed Hamas. There have been reported clashes on both sides of the Israeli-Lebanese border.
The Israeli forces have bombarded positions in Damascus airport, at least twice until Monday. They believed these positions were helping to move equipment and weaponry needed by Hezbollah and its ally, the Islamic Republic.
Have there been reports about militias linked to the Islamic Republic coming to the aid of Hamas? Why is it that while the West directly threatens Iran, it also affirms that there is no evidence to show Tehran’s support or aid to Hamas militias in recent attacks? Are these threats for deterrence or with a particular goal? How will the Islamic Republic interpret these threats and developments?
For at least a decade, the Islamic Republic has spoken with pride of an Axis of Resistance for whose training and equipment it has invested more than 40 years and now sees it as its peak. The Shiite crescent that they spoke of goes through Arab capitals, from Damascus to Baghdad, Sanaa and Beirut. They’ve reached all of this with their financial and spiritual investments.
The missile factories in Lebanon and Gaza have built hundreds of thousands of rockets, which can easily threaten Israel even without the tangible presence of the forces of the Islamic Republic. In the last 40 years, they’ve spent billions on supporting, arming and creating blood and religious ties between Shiite militias of the region. Lebanese women from the south have been married to Iranian male members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Daughter of the most famous commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, was married to a Hezbollah man.
In Iraq and Syria, too, things are similar to Lebanon. This spiritual, human and financial investment has given the Iran an undue confidence.
They look at the experience of Taliban mercenaries, linked to them, who conducted a guerilla struggle against US forces in Afghanistan. Receiving tens of millions of dollars every year, they were able to drive out US and coalition forces out of Afghanistan (Taliban believes they defeated them.)
They also look at their experience in backing their proxy militias in Iraq which brought heavy costs on the US and led them to leave. Also, their experience in arming and supporting Houthis in Yemen. They believe that their re-establishment of ties with their Arab neighbors is because of these threats.
It is believed that such false imaginations and this feeling of victory makes them believe the Hamas attack on Israel was another sign of their power in the region. This has led them to make miscalculations.
If the countries of the region normalized their ties with Iran, this wasn’t due to being scared or desperate. It was because they wanted to achieve their plans for economic development and grand perspectives of their national interests.
Ismail Haniyeh, leader of Hamas, openly admits in front of cameras that Iran and Hezbollah knew about the October 7 attacks on Israel and supported it. But, just a few days before, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Iran had no role in the attacks, although he approved of Hamas’ actions.
This reminds me of remarks by Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s general secretary, who, following the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015, was worried about his income from Iran. In front of the cameras, he admitted that Iran was paying for their shoes, turbans, water, bread and the carpet underneath them. With such admission, he effectively challenged the Islamic Republic so that it couldn’t do a deal beyond the nuclear deal. This was meant at preserving Hezbollah’s interests.
Because of the evil it has sprouted since 1979, Iran doesn’t have the ability to change or correct its course. After 44 years, how could it stop the ideology ruling over this regime and its relationship with mafia and militia and terror groups of the region? These groups were created and armed and funded for the rainy days. They were to be used for threatening the West and for the interests of the regime. It is believed that as soon as Hamas is seen to be threatened with downfall and destruction, Hezbollah militias will enter the realm.
For the Islamic Republic of Iran what doesn’t matter is Iran or people of Palestine or their cause. All they care about is safeguarding their own Shiite extremist and totalitarian regime. They are happy if in the pursuit of this goal they destroy Iran, Iranians and whoever doesn’t support their particular sectarian religious approach.
But it appears that the Islamic Republic has been too extreme this time and it doesn’t know that the presence of major Western leaders in Israel means their full support for Israel’s war against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
The current events are reminiscent of the days when al-Qaeda attacked the United States. The world suddenly stood against Taliban rule and destroyed Taliban and their unjust rule over Afghanistan. In a historic meeting, the United Nations Security Council sanctioned an attack on al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Taliban and al-Qaeda’s bases were attacked by a US-led coalition.
Based on what the French president said during his trip to Israel on Tuesday, Hamas has targeted Jews for killing and this could count as a crime against humanity. This could lead the Security council to sanction an attack on the infrastructure of countries supporting terrorists and financing weapons of mass destruction.
Because of bad economic conditions and its lack of popularity amongst the people, the Islamic Republic cannot enter war. On the other hand, it recently re-established ties with its Arab neighbors, which means it can’t threaten them or attack their interests as a deterrent against foreign attacks.
The Islamic Republic has put Iran and the peace-loving and moderate people of this country in potential danger. The coming days will be amongst the most important and challenging days in the political life of terrorist groups and militias linked to the Islamic Republic.
At the end, I should also point out that destruction of Hamas and Gaza will not bring the peace and tranquility that Netanyahu and the nation of Israel are seeking. The current war is an ideological war, which will not be won by bombing and killing militias.
The public opinion of one billion Muslims the world over will be influenced by these events and this ideology will raise its head in another form and in another place. Just like al-Qaeda turned to ISIS and this jihadist ideology became more dangerous after the US entered the war with al-Qaeda terrorists in Afghanistan.
The US needs to change the attitude that allows Qatar to give 30 million dollars a month to Hamas. This policy was followed by Democrats for years and this was the basis of the Biden administration’s foreign policy too. According to this policy, if you financially support “inconvenient groups” this means you get rid of them or are able to change them. This policy has proven wrong many times, but the Democrats are still adamant about it.
Israel should also abandon the idea that small fundamentalist groups in Palestine, such as the Islamic Jihad or Hamas, are good for creating a rift in the cause of creating a Palestinian state and marginalizing the Palestinian Authority.
I believe the current crisis will need a political, not a military solution. Netanyahu should show courage and initiative here. He should listen to his Arab neighbors and accept the two-state solution. Creating a state of Palestine will lead to the disarmament of terror groups and their backers like the Islamic Republic and they will no longer have an excuse for their activities, recruitment and Jihad.
Israel wants peace, tranquility and security. But it should first make peace with its neighbors before it can have friendship and sustainable peace with the Arab world. Netanyahu is in a historical position. He can rise to become a champion of peace in the Middle East and put an end to the cycle of violence, terrorism and threats.
The Islamic Republic, too, faces conditions similar to the day when George W. Bush declared Iran, Iraq, North Korea as part of an Axis of Evil.
Since the 9/11 attacks, the world has seen a lot of changes. More actors have entered the fray. To safeguard their interests in the region, China and Russia will not sit silent. This confrontation will mean the biggest challenge for the world before 2024; that of poles of power and balance of power.
And our Iran will be at the core of these new confrontations. The Islamic Republic has bound Iran to the Axis of Evil of Hamas, Hezbollah and other proxy groups linked to the regime.
