The Region after the Shots Fired in Pennsylvania

From the US to all four corners of the globe, everyone is recalibrating their positions after the shots were fired in Pennsylvania. Former President Donald Trump miraculously escaped death, but the bullets wounded President Biden and his party. The repercussions of the failed assassination attempt will have major implications for the presidential race. Trump now has a tremendous opportunity to rally the support of the Republican Party base. His reaction to the assassination attempt suggests that the US could be on course for a red wave, or maybe even a political earthquake, as opinion polls have found that 69% of the electorate intends to vote for Trump.
Before July 14th, cautious optimism had prevailed in the region, with many relatively confident about the prospects of a truce in Gaza that would apply to Lebanon as well. This climate emerged when Hamas agreed to begin negotiations for an exchange of hostages without demanding a permanent ceasefire. Despite the massacre in Mawasi (Rafah) and Israel's refusal to provide any guarantees regarding the truce and negotiations, Hamas agreed to talks. Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to impose his agenda and control the entire region on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
However, following the assassination attempt- and on the eve of Netanyahu's visit to Washington, where he will deliver a speech to Congress- Netanyahu now finds himself in a better position. He can adopt a more rigid approach and will have more room to maneuver in his war on Gaza and Lebanon. He now has the opportunity to engage in negotiations merely for the sake of negotiating before choosing the right moment to undermine the process. His goal is to continue the war, to keep killing, destroying, and displacing, all under the guise (that is acceptable to both the US and NATO) of weakening Hamas's military capabilities!
It is true that Gaza has fought bravely and demonstrated great resilience during the vicious war that began almost ten months ago, putting the idea of a Palestinian state back on the global agenda. However, "Al-Aqsa Flood" has come at an extremely high cost. The enemy has reoccupied Gaza and tightened its siege. The Strip is facing a catastrophe worse than the Nakba of 1948. More than two million Palestinians are without shelter and struggling to meet their most basic needs. Many will try to escape, and we could see a population transfer that the Palestinians could not have imagined and the Israelis could not have dreamt of.
This transfer would achieve the Zionist’s goal of shrinking the Palestinian population of Gaza. Exile will become a refuge, as Palestinians know that the Strip is now covered in 40 million tons of rubble. It has become scorched earth ravaged by epidemics due to the decomposition of thousands of bodies. Even if this savage war were to end now, it would take 15 years to clear the rubble and another 15 years to rebuild, and the process would cost $40 billion!
Simultaneously, the Zionist assault on Lebanon will intensify, as Israel has the initiative. It is demanding a shift in the status quo and is supported by international actors and mediators. Hezbollah is responsible for igniting the front; it instigated the clashes along the Blue Line. As a result, in addition to the catastrophe in Gaza, we have seen mass destruction in the Lebanese villages and towns south of the Litani River, and their residents have been forcibly displaced. Israel has imposed a security belt through its strikes because of the shortsightedness that drove Hezbollah to downplay the ramifications of being drawn into such a war!
It is noteworthy that after Iran showed prudence since Raisi’s death, carefully weighing various options, Tehran presented the world with its new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, whose speeches have brought the ideas of former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif back to the forefront. This shift comes within the framework of mitigating the damage of another Trump presidency after he decided to kill Qassem Soleimani during his first term.
Hezbollah is in a different time sphere. It is disregarding the global impact of recent developments. Sheikh Naim Qassem's recent speeches underscore that it is still possible to overlook the priority of separating the southern front from Gaza. "We have begun the phase of laying the groundwork for the eradication of Israel!" He recently exclaimed. In a surreal twist, he made this claim amid reports indicating that after its cadres were extensively targeted, Hezbollah has begun "changing its tactics: couriers deliver messages verbally and the party is using encrypted codes for weapons and meeting locations."
Hezbollah's decision to instigate the war has aggravated the total collapse of Lebanon, adding burdens that southerners cannot afford. Its refusal, since Israel withdrew in 2000, to consider a settlement regarding the border dispute with the enemy reflects the hold Tehran has over the party. Iran sees Lebanon’s destruction as nothing more than collateral damage. The repeated claims about "deterrence" reflect nothing but a denial of reality and the total disconnect between Hezbollah and the concerns and hardships of the Lebanese citizens, as well as its refusal to allow the army, with UNIFIL support, to take control, in line with Resolution 1701.
In the face of catastrophe, the wise course of action is to reduce losses to the greatest extent possible. Courage lies in saving lives and avoiding imminent threats to our territory. Hezbollah is not operating along these lines because the decisions are made in Iran, while what remains of Lebanon’s authorities have settled for becoming messengers. The "opposition" within the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime has had absolutely no impact!