The Houthis in Tel Aviv

The implications of the recent drone strike on Tel Aviv that the Houthi militia in Yemen claimed responsibility for go far beyond the immediate material damage it caused. Justifying this first-of-its-kind attack on Tel Aviv as the result of a human error in assessing the threat level of the Houthi should not lead us to overlook its strategic implications, even after Israel’s massive response.
What happened shows that the capabilities of the Iran-backed militia have improved significantly and that the threat they pose to Israel's security, as well as to regional security more broadly, has aggravated. It also exposes the strategic vulnerabilities of the air defense systems of all countries to the threats posed by drones- a single error, whether human or technical, is enough to prelude disaster.
Given the current aggravation of regional tensions, this incident is high up on the agendas of governments, which are now analyzing its broader implications and making strategic reassessments of how to confront the Houthis and their Iranian backers based on that analysis.
The Houthis made clear that they have bolstered their military capabilities. They have acquired advanced drones and become better at using them to carry out long-range strikes. This success is intertwined with their coordination with Iran and the militias it supports, raising alarming bells about the capacities that other militias, like Hezbollah, which are more advanced and efficient, have acquired. If we link this to the "unity of fronts" strategy and think of what could happen if an attack on Israel or any other regional state is launched from multiple fronts- with hundreds or thousands of drones sent simultaneously- the magnitude of the threat posed by Iran's network of militias enhancing their arsenal and expanding the range and scope of their operations becomes clear. Given the rapid escalation we are seeing in the Middle East, contemplating such large-scale attacks is not a theoretical exercise.
Accordingly, the implications of the recent Houthi strike go beyond the immediate security concerns it gave rise to, potentially reflecting a shift in regional dynamics and the regional balance of power.
The drone that struck a building in Tel Aviv also dealt a blow to the image of the United States in the Middle East and eroded the confidence of its allies further. This attack is yet another indication of the Biden administration’s strategic failures in the Red Sea and the disastrous repercussions of Operation Prosperity Guardian, through which Washington sought to ensure the freedom of maritime navigation. The operation did not help the US gain the trust of its European, Middle Eastern, or Asian allies, who did not support this effort, nor did it deter Iran and its proxies.
The Europeans launched their own operation, and Gulf states refused to take part, while key partners like India and China chose not to join the US initiative. Moreover, the Biden administration's decision to remove the Houthis from the terrorist list, before putting them back on it in a limited and faltering manner, signaled weakness and capitulation to Iran-backed militias, disconcerting Gulf states and reinforcing the sense of having been abandoned by the US administration.
True, the growing threat posed by the Houthis could push the countries of their region to fortify the alliances they have forged against the mutual threat they all face. However, the flip side is that countries could suspend normalization and regional integration to ward off the threat posed by the Houthis and Iran, potentially freezing comprehensive peace initiatives, which require guarantees from the Americans, who are not seen as highly reliable at the moment.
The regional cooperation that we saw following the Iranian missile attack on Israel last April is under threat. Governments in the region could conclude that direct or indirect cooperation with Israel would heighten threats to their security if no reliable international guarantor provides the support and deterrence needed to sustain partnership and cooperation.
Moreover, the Houthis’ growing confidence will probably complicate the political process and peace efforts in Yemen. This would mean Yemen remaining a focal point of regional and international insecurity and economic extortion. Since Iran is the political, military, and operational backer of the Houthis, its influence in the region will grow as a result of recent developments. This, in turn, implies the consolidation of Tehran's influence in the Middle East, which will alter the balance of power in the region.
The Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv is a reminder of the complexity of escalating regional threats. It highlights the urgent need for strategic shifts in military preparedness and defense policies, as well as how Iran and its proxies are dealt with politically in light of different international calculations.
Will the upcoming US elections bring political change, with Donald Trump returning to the White House? A Trump victory would imply the re-establishment of deterrence against Iran and its militias, turning the page on the Biden administration’s distinct political naivety.