Even before Ronald Reagan's campaign manager, William Casey, who would later become among the most prominent intelligence chiefs in the US, coined the term "October Surprise" in 1980, the concept had already been a reality on the ground.
In the fall of 1956, the Suez War and the Hungarian Uprising shook the US on the eve of Dwight Eisenhower's re-election. In 1968, Richard Nixon feared that progress in the Vietnam peace talks could jeopardize his candidacy, and the Democrats feared that Nixon had been undermining those talks for political gain.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan's supporters were worried that President Jimmy Carter could secure a last-minute deal to release the American hostages held in Iran. Many Americans today believe that the 2016 presidential election was influenced by Russian interference and a broad Russian misinformation campaign that sought to help Trump, although these claims have not been officially proven.
In any case, an "October Surprise" is an event, or series of events, that has the potential to significantly influence voters and leaves little time to reverse the shift in public sentiment. Indeed, sensational news stories that come out in the final moments of a campaign can be enough to change the course of an election.
Are the upcoming elections on November 5 in need of a major event to tip the scales in favor of one candidate over the other?
It is clear that everyone is aware of the strengths and weaknesses of both Trump and Harris, the electorate is familiar with both candidates. Thus, a pivotal October Surprise, a significant political development- whether foreign or domestic- could potentially strengthen the Biden administration and benefit Kamala Harris, to the detriment of Trump. After all, Harris is considered his successor and an extension of the Obama era, so to speak.
However, the opposite could happen. The winds may blow against the current administration, allowing Donald Trump to return victorious. But what about the anticipated surprise? Is it really bound to unfold in October, or could it occur earlier, in September?
The fact is that these are surprises; that is, they are by definition impossible to confine them to a particular time period or predict outright. Nonetheless, we can point to several potential scenarios.
On the foreign policy front, the Biden administration might manage to end the Gaza war and quell some of the tension in the Middle East. This could quickly pave the way for peace deals between regional countries and Israel, giving the Democrats a significant boost domestically and allowing them to win the election.
However, given Netanyahu's intransigence and insistence on military options, things could escalate into an unexpected large-scale war that entangles this administration at the eleventh hour. In that event, Trump would assert that he alone is capable of ending this chaos, leading to his victory over Harris.
Another potential surprise is being discussed by several members of the American intelligentsia, including former White House and Pentagon official Douglas MacKinnon. In a recent article for The Hill, he suggested that a broken Biden might leave the White House, resigning under duress at any moment in September, before the end of his term, after having been forced to withdraw from the presidential race... But why?
Some suspect that the Democratic Party has no regard for the democratic process, given that their candidate was not chosen through primaries. Fourteen million Americans had voted for Biden, and these voters were brushed aside to elevate Harris in an undemocratic and inappropriate manner, which could harm her chances in the race against Trump.
Trump's lead is growing day by day, regardless of how many rigged polls favor Harris, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and behind them Barack Obama. The Democrats might find themselves with no choice but to apply even more psychological pressure on Biden, pushing him to suddenly leave the White House. That would allow Kamala Harris to step into the presidency for the remainder of the campaign, in the hopes of reshuffling the cards behind the scenes in a desperate attempt to block Trump's path back to the White House.
One ruse or trick could be to declare a state of emergency for one reason or another, with the primary goal of manipulating the voting process, whether through mail-in ballots or in-person voting. The Democratic oligarchy might find itself compelled to resort to this tactic once again, especially since they probably did so during the 2020 presidential election. There is even talk of introducing a new pandemic to provide them with a pretext to do so.
Thus, the US is likely to remain volatile, and the same is true for the world around it until the election results are announced, if they are held peacefully.
