As soon as the "unity of arena" war on Lebanese soil ended, Hezbollah decided to push the conflict across the Syrian border - a step that has immense local, regional, and international repercussions during this critical juncture.
Hezbollah is undoubtedly well aware of this move's political implications in both Lebanon and Syria.
In Lebanon, some of its members had convinced themselves that the "triumphant defeat" of its support war with Israel could be "a blessing in disguise," that could allow for reintegrating the party into Lebanese state institutions and that could push the party to embrace “patriotism” and its "Lebanese" identity, which it had long sacrificed for a regional political project.
As for Syria, which is currently undergoing a critical phase, the last thing that the volatile situation needs is more fuel to be added to the fire to satisfy the desires of Abbas Araghchi and those behind him.
It is worth reminding ourselves that Hezbollah had publicly made commitments, through intermediaries (foremost among them its allies from its community), in order to end Israel's rampage of killing, destruction, and displacement that primarily targeted its community in southern Lebanon, its eastern regions, and the southern suburbs of its capital. Thus, returning today to Syria once again, with its weapons and fighters, to perpetuate Assad's rule over the people of Syrian - many of whom oppose it and have risen against it - sends two signals:
First, it reflects a disregard for domestic peace and security and the efforts to build a state in Lebanon, which it has hijacked since 2008.
Second, Hezbollah's renewed military involvement, starting from the town of Al-Qusayr, does not in any way reinforce the legitimacy of the government in Damascus. Indeed, it is unequivocal proof that the regime has survived through foreign support and occupation since 2011.
Meanwhile, in the United States, which remains a key player in the region, as we know, the countdown to a new administration has begun. This new leadership will make a series of significant changes in the US approach to several regional issues.
At the core of these American policy shifts are the roles of Iran and Israel. It is clear that both the Syrian regime and Hezbollah are significantly impacted by the power dynamics between Tehran's ambitions and Tel Aviv's priorities that "Donald Trump's Washington" will manage.
Accordingly, while the recent rapid developments in Syria have surprised many Arab observers, they likely did not surprise the "policy backrooms" in Washington, especially after months of Israel's wars on Hezbollah specifically and Lebanon generally.
The United States (and Israel) have plans for what Hezbollah might look like and by extension, for imposing a reduction of Tehran's influence across the Middle East.
Thus, the military collapse that opened the doors of Aleppo and then Hama to the Syrian opposition has unequivocally confirmed that the doctrine of the army - let alone the justifications of its operations - has not held, despite Russia's military presence. This was further underlined later, by the failure to contain the uprisings in Daraa, Sweida, Quneitra and Deir Ezzor.
On the political front, it was remarkable to hear statements from actors that are not affiliated with the "enemy camp" openly blaming the regime for missing opportunity after opportunity to engage in political settlements.
Since the "red lines" that former US President Barack Obama had drawn before subsequently handing the reins in Syria to the Russians and Iranians, it has been apparent that the regime believed itself victorious. As a result, it rejected any political agreements or settlements.
Moreover, the hardline stances in Damascus were bolstered by Türkiye's "military retreat" in the face of the Russians and its "political concessions" to the Iranians, which were crystallized in the "Astana process" that many considered a betrayal of the Syrian opposition.
That all seems behind us now. A new scene has emerged, and new fears have taken hold of Syria.
The "de facto division" of Syria has become explosive. It can no longer be ignored or underestimated, as it could spiral out of control. Continuing to ignore the "political transition," which has been and remains the essence of political and international efforts, as well as the ultimate aspiration of the Syrian people, would be a catastrophic mistake whose repercussions are no longer containable.
Accordingly, Friday's meeting on Syria between representatives from Russia, Iran, and Turkey, in Doha, highlighted the gravity of the situation that has emerged over the past few days. However, two significant players were not in attendance: the United States and Israel.
Of course, there's no need to remind anyone that the former has a military presence on Syrian soil, as well as Iraq and Lebanon, Syria's neighbors. The latter has "open borders" that have recently been cleared of any Syrian army elements.
Accordingly, leaving a vacuum is not an option.
On the other hand, the fear now is of chaos resulting from new foreign intervention adventures.
The real solution is a swift and serious "political transition." This is what the Syrian people deserve. This is what the beautiful and ancient land of Syria deserves - the "granary" of the Levant, the cradle of its cities, the orchard of its fruits, its jasmine garden, the birthplace of its free people, the library of its ideas, the corridor of human civilization and the point at which civilizations intersect.
