How Can We Really Protect Lebanon?

The extraordinary accelerating shifts that have unfolded in the Middle East in recent months suggest that the region can expect even more in the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The scale and depth of these changes witnessed in several "Sykes-Picot" countries, so to speak, mean that their political, social, and economic implications will not be easy to envisage.
From Al-Aqsa Flood, which began in Gaza on October 7, 2023, to the devastating Israeli campaign that continues unabated and has claimed over 45,000 lives in the Strip; to the war in Lebanon that destroyed many border villages and left over 3,000 martyrs, as well as dealing a blow to Hezbollah’s infrastructure, leaders, members, and institutions; to the tit-for-tat attacks of Iran and Israel; to the fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria, 54 years since his father Hafez Assad seized power, the events have been coming quick and fast. It is impossible to predict what comes next, or rather, where it all ends.
What we know for sure is that the Axis of Resistance has suffered a series of defeats. Events have proven that many of the political and ideological slogans it had upheld for decades were hollow. None of their promises materialized when it mattered most, during the most critical and difficult moments of the existential war waged relentlessly by Israel. The Axis stood by as one front collapsed after the other. While some of the talking heads associated with it maintained their belligerent rhetoric and continued to scream on our screens, material achievements were nowhere to be found.
That is not said out of schadenfreude; it is a realistic assessment. The parties concerned cannot maintain these same policies and avoid a critical reexamination of their performance that allows them to catch their breath and adapt to new realities on the ground. This applies to every component of the Axis (which may no longer deserve the name "Axis" following its gradual disintegration). Such a reassessment is needed in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, and every other front concerned.
While it is crucial that no party feels defeated in Lebanon, it is equally important that no other party gloats over what has happened, though expressing a bit of relief and glee is natural. The delayed delivery of justice for the figures who had fallen victim to the deposed regime warrants at least a quiet acknowledgement, given the weight of the loss.
What matters most in Lebanon at this critical and historic juncture is a diligent effort to maintain the ceasefire and develop a plan to ensure it becomes permanent. This is particularly pressing given that Israel continues to violate the ceasefire, as it has since the deal was announced. Emboldened by triumphalism and the US election, which it will exploit to the fullest extent, Israel will likely violate the agreement going forward as well. It is equally important to immediately formulate a defense strategy that makes use of all the capabilities available to us. That would enable Lebanon to strengthen its defensive capacities to- at the very least- prevent Israeli violations and protect the country, whereby Lebanon is not left “exposed” without military or political safeguards.
A state monopoly on the means of violence is natural and fundamental in any country. Indeed, maintaining this monopoly among the state's core responsibilities, and any partnership with others is not sound. This is a universally accepted principle. However, in the face of Israel’s "overpowered" army and its triumphant elation following the "victories" it claims to have achieved in the region, a deep discussion on how to defend Lebanon is needed. Though necessary and urgent, a state monopoly on arms is not sufficient for Lebanon’s defense.
Accordingly, the election of a new Lebanese president, the rehabilitation of its constitutional institutions, the implementation of measures to stabilize the ceasefire and reconstruction, and the consolidation of stability are all steps that must be taken without delay. These measures would help shield Lebanon from the regional fires, which show no signs of dying out anytime soon.