Everyone is warning against an Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip, condemning it and denouncing statements made by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu and members of his extremist cabinet. But the real question here is the one I posed to an Arab diplomat: "Don’t you see that the invasion has already begun?" He replied: "It's almost over!"
Israel has not ceased its destruction of Gaza for a single moment. Since Hamas and its allies carried out the October 7 operation two years ago, every phase of Netanyahu’s campaign against Gaza has come under a different pretext, a different political media plan, different statements and an ongoing war.
Netanyahu’s stated pretext is the same as Hamas’: the hostage issue. However, it's evident that Netanyahu has little concern for the hostages, while Hamas has nothing but this card, which it used just days ago by releasing videos of Israeli captives in Gaza.
Netanyahu believes that Hamas - the very group he empowered and exploited to entrench Palestinian division and derail all efforts toward a Palestinian state - committed the ultimate sin with the October 7 attack. He sees this as an opportunity to be remembered in history as the one who, just as he exploited Hamas, was the one who ended it.
Meanwhile, Hamas has no political plan, no clear exit strategy, and so far appears to be on a suicide mission. This is demonstrated by some statements suggesting that Israeli hostages will be on the battlefield alongside Hamas fighters during any ground invasion.
Such statements signal a suicidal scenario. The reason is simple: these statements don’t put pressure on Netanyahu. On the contrary, they relieve internal pressure on him and give him international justification. That’s why (US) President (Donald) Trump said Hamas must release all living hostages at once in order to stop the war.
This undermines all ideas of phased hostage or prisoner exchanges and represents US support for Netanyahu, while no one is talking about Hamas. Internationally, everyone is focused on stopping the war and ensuring Hamas is not given another chance to rule Gaza.
As Netanyahu is continuing the "invasion" of Gaza in practice, he rejects the idea of returning authority to the Palestinian Authority and hints at annexing the West Bank so that negotiations will be about the post-Authority phase and not about engaging with it. That’s why I believe the invasion has already begun; what's left is to finish off Gaza through displacement - by various means, none of which are voluntary - because the reality on the ground reinforces the idea that Gaza is now unlivable.
Therefore, Netanyahu knows exactly what he wants. His objectives extend beyond retaining power, recovering hostages, or destroying Hamas. He wants to redefine the rules of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and reshape the political Palestinian entity after this war.
He also seeks to reshape the region. His offer to help disarm Hezbollah is evidence to that. Hezbollah is also floundering, hoping to maintain the same balance of power in Lebanon. Netanyahu, however, has his sights set on Iran militarily. And despite how clear all this is, Hamas does not seem to know what it wants, aside from its desire to rule Gaza. It holds no cards except the hostages.
Moreover, Hamas is incapable of building bridges with the Palestinian Authority, which faces a real threat and has become a victim of Hamas, even though it was supposed to be the savior.
It’s a grim picture, but it suggests that the Israeli invasion is nearing its end - not just beginning.
