Is Russian President Vladimir Putin seeking a way out of the Ukraine war through European mediation?
During Russia’s Victory Day celebrations, he announced that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder was his preferred channel to Ukraine. Schroder and Putin share close ties that did not end with the end of the latter’s chancellorship, evolving into a personal friendship with time, and the German politician is among Putin's most prominent allies in the West.
The latest move from Moscow raises two questions. The first: has the burden and mounting costs of the war begun to weigh on Putin, particularly given its implications for his legacy? Will he leave the Russian phoenix truly risen from the ashes, as he did the first time after taking over a country left in wretched condition by his predecessor Boris Yeltsin, or will it be smoldering in the ashes indefinitely?
The second question concerns both nationality and personality: why should the mediator be German; why not someone from any other European country? And why Schroder in particular?
One could say that Schroder is the Western figure closest to the “siloviki,” Putin's powerful circle of strongmen overseeing Russia's major energy institutions. Schroder has held senior positions in Russian energy companies despite the broad criticism coming first from within Germany and later from across the European Union.
Observers across Europe are asking whether Schroder be trusted to be an impartial mediator.
It is no secret that the widespread "Russophobia" across the Old Continent leads officials to see any proposal advanced by Putin with suspicion, especially in light of what millions of Europeans see as Russian preparations to invade other European countries after Ukraine, regardless of his stated intention to end the war. To many, such declarations seem like little more than a ploy.
Assessing Schroder's impartiality as a mediator is no simple matter. While he has described Russia's war on Ukraine as a violation of international law, he has also insisted that demonizing Russia and casting it as a permanent enemy is unacceptable and repeatedly called for Russian oil to be allowed to flow once into Germany.
Another question arises from this conspiratorial reading of history: is Putin's call for German mediation a sincere effort to end years of fire and destruction, or a ploy aimed at aggravating divisions within NATO three weeks before its annual summit in Ankara?
Some see Putin's preference for German mediation as a form of political courtship that exploits the tension of German-American relations and as a way to put his finger on Germany's open wound- the anxiety stirred by the prospect of a withdrawal of American troops, who for eight decades have served as Europe's protective umbrella against Soviet ambitions.
In this context, a faction of the Social Democratic Party, Schroder's party, sees Putin's push for his mediation as an insult to the United States and a transparent ploy designed to widen the gap between Washington and Berlin.
From this perspective, the idea of Schroder mediating them talks is meant to create the impression of a desire for dialogue, hiding Putin’s real intentions: to sow discord in Europe because he has neither forgotten nor forgiven the fact that NATO was, in his eyes, responsible for the cardinal sin of the twentieth century: booby-trapping and ultimately dismantling the Soviet Union.
Is there, then, an alternative to Schroder among the Germans?
Before answering, it bears noting that some German strategists believe Russia has lost its Eurasian cohesion and inflicted enormous damage on itself by pursuing a path of manufacturing enemies in every direction, and that the time has for a change of direction.
Alternatives are now being discussed, foremost among them former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom Der Spiegel described as a potentially effective mediator on account of her command of Russian, her deep knowledge of Putin, and her availability. Merkel is criticized, however, for her support of Nord Stream, her role in the Minsk agreements, and statements she made to a Hungarian outlet, Partizan, in which attributed part of the responsibility for the war in Ukraine to certain European Union countries.
In Germany itself, some speak of mediation by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, while German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul insists that "Germany is prepared to assume greater responsibility in the diplomatic process."
The conclusion: has German mediation become the solution, whoever ends up being the mediator?
